According to Garda and RUC figures, the "Real IRA", the group which carried out the Omagh bombing on August 15th, 1998, killing 29 people and injuring 300 others, has achieved a level of support that may make it impossible to defeat using conventional antiterrorist policing.
It is now known that the group has established an operational base in Britain, enabling it to carry out attacks in London. It was the "Real IRA" and not the Continuity IRA, as stated in The Irish Times last week, which carried out the bomb attack on the BBC, according to Garda sources.
It had been believed previously that the Continuity IRA had infiltrated a terrorist unit into London which was being supplied with explosives by the "Real IRA". However, it is now believed the "Real IRA" may have developed into the most advanced terrorist group in either the Republic or Northern Ireland.
The momentum of its attacks is also increasing. Since the start of the year it has carried out or attempted landmine attacks in Cookstown, Co Tyrone, Armagh and Claudy, Co Derry; a heavy mortar attack in Derry; and the bombing in London.
It is not now thought responsible for the small explosion at a Territorial Army base in north London when a 14-year-old cadet lost his eyesight and a hand. It is thought this was the result of an accidental explosion of a stun grenade.
The most serious attack by the "Real IRA" since Omagh was the mortar assault on Ebrington Barracks in Derry on January 22nd. The mortar struck its intended target, the junior officers' mess, where 20 young soldiers were socialising. Only a minor fault in the mortar prevented carnage.
Both RUC and Garda antiterrorist Special Branch units are devoting most of their resources to countering the spread of the "Real IRA". However, it appears the group has improved its defences against infiltration by the police.
Garda Special Branch work has been reduced since the Provisional IRA ceasefires. The RUC Special Branch has also been hit by early retirements as part of the Patten reforms and natural wastage. It is anticipated that, by the end of this summer, the RUC Special Branch will be more than 40 per cent below strength.
Some senior gardai and RUC officers believe the opportunity to eliminate the "Real IRA" in the aftermath of the Omagh bombing, when there was widespread antipathy towards it, has been lost. The group has attracted disaffected Provisional IRA figures, who are believed to include a number of activists regarded by security forces as among the world's leading improvised bomb and mortar-makers.
A Newry man suspected of leading some of the Provisional IRA's most deadly operations against the security forces in the North is believed to have defected to the "Real IRA". It is thought his experience and leadership abilities are beginning to be reflected in the increased professionalism of recent "Real IRA" attacks.
The group is also said to be very focused on its aims, delineated in court by a senior Garda Special Branch officer as achieving by "violent and criminal means . . . to bring down the present peace process and return Northern Ireland to a state of conflict".
Gardai have also stated in evidence that the group's "political wing" is the 32 County Sovereignty Committee.
According to senior Garda sources, the group's main problem is finance. The Provisional IRA has kept its fund-raising organisation intact and is resisting attempts by the "Real IRA" to muscle in on activities such as the sale of smuggled cigarettes in Belfast.
The shortage of funds in the "Real IRA" means it is unable to provide wages for its key figures. Its principal bomb-maker, a west Dublin man who was formerly a full-time bomb-maker for the Provisional IRA, now has a day job.
The group has been carrying out robberies and is also raising funds through social functions and collections here and among the expatriate communities in the United States and Britain.