Events ae pushing the Provisional movement towards an unavoidable deciosion, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Yesterday's developments in relation to IRA fundraising and money-laundering seem nothing short of sensational. Last night Ministers were delighted at the turn of events, which they believe vindicates their recent pronounced change of approach to the Provisional movement.
It appears that a further part of the organised crime element of the republican movement has been exposed to the public gaze. Four separate seizures in Dublin and Cork are reported to have involved £2.36 million and €170, 000. Several of the people arrested have links to Sinn Féin, with one being a former Sinn Féin councillor who was a candidate in the last general election. It was reported last night that the arrests and seizures came as a result of a Garda operation directed specifically at IRA money-laundering. Last night Garda raids were still going on.
Some £60,000 of the money seized was in Northern Bank notes, prompting immediate speculation that this was a small part of the £26.5 million stolen in the Northern Bank raid. There was also speculation that more arrests were to come, possibly including that of a high-profile figure.
Sinn Féin issued the usual warning against a rush to judgment, saying the truth would emerge over time. Sinn Féin sources pointed out that several party figures had been arrested at the time of the Northern Bank robbery, but none had been charged.
It is not justified to jump to the conclusion that the Northern Bank notes were part of the proceeds of the Northern Bank robbery. Such currency notes are commonplace throughout the North, and the discovery of a sum less that 0.25 per cent of the amount stolen from the Northern Bank is not, on its own, convincing evidence.
But even without a proven link to the Northern Bank robbery, the political implications are enormous. After almost two months of Government insistence that their dealings with Sinn Féin cannot continue as before because of ongoing IRA criminal activity, here comes further evidence that, as Mr Adams once said, "they haven't gone away, you know".
This follows the widespread acceptance, outside republican circles, that the IRA carried out the Northern Bank raid and the persistent assertion by the Taoiseach and his Ministers that the Sinn Féin leadership knew about it in advance.
It also follows the serious damage to the Provisional movement in a section of its own community because of its response to the murder of Robert McCartney in a Belfast bar. Individual IRA members are widely believed to have carried out that murder - of a party supporter - and to have intimidated witnesses afterwards.
Now comes the apparent exposure of a major money-laundering operation. No charges have yet been brought, and much of the information that has emerged seems to have come anonymously from Garda sources.
But if the incident is as it seems, it will provide convincing evidence that the Government's analysis of the situation is entirely correct.
The Government has insisted in recent years that IRA criminal activity is continuing, and that it involves enormous sums of money. And here we seem to have found evidence of a cross-Border network, ranging from on-the-ground racketeers and possibly bank robbers to besuited members of the financial services industry. They are dealing with enormous sums of money. What is it for?
The Government has always insisted too that Sinn Féin and the IRA are two sides of the same coin. And here we have people associated with Sinn Féin arrested on suspicion of involvement in handling IRA money.
Peace process optimists always accepted that when the Provisional movement's transition to democracy was complete, there would still be isolated groupings that would refuse to let go of criminal activity. But the core of the illegal paramilitary organisation would have withered away, as Sinn Féin evolved into an unambiguously democratic force. Yesterday's major cash seizures and arrests suggest that this has not happened, and that the IRA remains a sophisticated criminal organisation dealing with large amounts of cash.
Senior Sinn Féin figures must be realising themselves that their usual responses to these revelations are no longer adequate. Securocrat conspiracies involving unionist agents at senior levels will not explain away operations such as that uncovered yesterday.
It has been said for a decade that sooner or later, there will come a moment when the Provisional movement will reach a fork in the road, at which they must choose whether or not to leave all violence and criminality behind.
The end of Government tolerance of ambiguity, combined with the continued exposure of IRA law-breaking, means that that moment must surely be coming close.