European contractors likely to profit from peace in the Balkans

As Western leaders savoured NATO's victory over Yugoslavia's President, Mr Milosevic, this week, their satisfaction was tempered…

As Western leaders savoured NATO's victory over Yugoslavia's President, Mr Milosevic, this week, their satisfaction was tempered by the knowledge that they would soon have to pick up the bill for repairing the damage done by 11 weeks of bombing. The EU Commissioner for external relations, Mr Hans van den Broek, admitted that nobody yet knew how much the reconstruction of Kosovo would cost.

"I'm pretty anxious about what we will find when we get access to do a damage assessment. I think it will be rather shocking," he said.

While Europe's paymasters fret about the cost, construction firms, engineering and power companies can scarcely contain their excitement at the prospect of huge, lucrative contracts to rebuild the Balkans. The Centre for Strategic Assessment in Washington estimates that the bombing campaign itself cost about €5 billion (£3.9 billion). The United States bore two-thirds of the cost - an insignificant sum for a country with a budget surplus of more than $100 billion.

Foreign ministers from the world's seven leading industrialised countries agreed in Cologne this week that Europe should bear the brunt of the reconstruction costs and the incoming President of the European Commission, Mr Romano Prodi, has promised that the EU will spend €30 billion (£23.6 billion) on rebuilding Kosovo over the next five years.

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The economics commissioner, Mr Yves Thibauld de Silguy, puts Europe's contribution at just €18 billion (£14.1 billion). EU officials hope that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will bear a large share of the cost.

Even if the EU does spend €30 billion, this figure represents just 0.4 per cent of western Europe's Gross Domestic Product.

The IMF estimates that it will cost €300 million to keep the 800,000 ethnic Albanian refugees fed and sheltered until the end of this year. The United Nations hopes to return many refugees to their homes before the winter but the pace of resettlement will depend on the extent of the damage caused to their houses.

The reconstruction of private housing stock is likely to be paid for by international agencies and carried out by local contractors. But larger projects, such as rebuilding roads, bridges, airports and public buildings, are likely to be contracted to foreign firms.

If the US defence industry stands to benefit most from the war, European contractors are likely to profit from peace in the Balkans.

Shares in the German construction firm Walter Bau rose shortly after the conflict began, perhaps on account of the company's track record in securing reconstruction contracts in Croatia. Power companies from France, Germany and Britain will vie for the chance to replace the electricity grid wrecked by NATO bombs and Europe's biggest engineering firms are already eyeing the wreckage of Kosovo's bridges, roads and railway lines.

The rebuilding of Kosovo will prove a bonanza for some European companies, but it is likely to be insignificant in comparison to the opportunities elsewhere in the Balkans over the next few years.

At their meeting this week in Cologne, the G7 foreign ministers agreed to fund a latter-day Marshall Plan for south-east Europe. The so-called Stability Pact is aimed at shoring up peace in Europe's most turbulent region - and preventing a flood of economic and political refugees into the richer countries of Western Europe.

As long as Mr Milosevic remains in power, Serbia will not benefit from the West's largesse, but every other country in the region stands to gain from the plan. The foreign ministers declined to specify how much they would spend on rebuilding the Balkans and estimates vary from €20 billion (£15.7 billion) to €100 billion.

The frontline states of Albania and Macedonia bore the greatest burden during the conflict and they are likely to be the first beneficiaries of the peace dividend.

Some infrastructural improvements will come almost immediately, as NATO forces upgrade air and sea ports to cope with a huge increase in traffic.

The West will also invest heavily in the tiny Yugoslav republic of Montenegro, bolstering its pro-Western government and attempting to create a prosperous contrast to Mr Milosevic's impoverished, ruined country.

Romania and Bulgaria can look forward to an acceleration of their accession to the EU, with all the economic assistance that implies. Bosnia has received assurances that the reconstruction of Kosovo will not affect its share of foreign aid and even Croatia - which boasts a GDP almost five times greater than Albania's - will benefit from the Stability Pact.

Most contracts will be awarded by national governments in consultation with the funding body - probably the IMF or the EU.

Western contractors can rejoice in the knowledge that local firms lack the expertise to carry out the most lucrative jobs, while a plentiful supply of cheap local labour will maximise profits.

As the reconstruction picks up pace, the economy of south-east Europe is likely to expand - creating more work for western bankers, businesses and management consultants.