Whatever replaces Partnership 2000, workers will be demanding the highest pay increase in well over a decade next year, the incoming vice-president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, Mr Joe O'Toole, has warned employers.
Mr O'Toole, who is also general secretary of the Irish National Teachers' Organisation, was speaking at the opening session of ICTU's biennial conference in Kilarney yesterday. "There will be no more trying to fit a `one size fits all' 10 per cent increase over three years. This time we will co me with an expensive price tag."
He added that trade unionists were sick of the constant warnings from IBEC, "the great Nostradamus of economic forecasters", constantly predicting the end of economic life and industry every time workers sought a pay increase.
"Over the last decade we have scrimped and scraped and tightened our belts while the captains of industry and the employers got wealthier and wealthier. Well, they and the Government had better get the message and hear the news. We are coming to the party."
Mr O'Toole also said that any new agreement must include "the marginalised and the impoverished", as well as investment in services such as health and education, and in infrastructural improvements to transport and telecommunications facilities.
The general secretary of SIPTU, Mr John McDonnell, said issues such as housing and transport would be central to any new talks. The commitment of employers and the Government to social initiatives had been hugely disappointing.
While the economy was booming "many workers' lives are now going very badly", he said. "More jobs and better wages and lower taxes were supposed to put everyone on the pig's back, or at least the tiger's tail. But that has not happened because investment in the necessary social infrastructure has not matched economic growth.
"Dublin now has the highest accommodation costs of any capital city in Europe. We still work longer hours than almost anyone else.
"Any reductions we have achieved in working time have been more than offset by the increase in travelling time to and from work.
"Thousands of workers are caught in the low-paid jobs where employers refuse on-the-job training to advance them into better-paid jobs," he said. "And most employers have still not adjusted to the fact that most workers are also parents, who need flexibility and family-friendly work practices, if they are to combine both roles over a long period.
"The old excuses about the State or the employers being unable to afford to tackle these problems just don't hold water any more."
Traditionally MSF has opposed agreements, and its acting national secretary, Mr Jerry Shanahan, said: "There is a big `if', and it's a very big `if', about whether there will be a new agreement."
Latest CSO figures showed profits had increased 23.3 per cent, while wages had risen by 5.5 per cent. "How can we sustain pay moderation when the people we represent see these figures?" he said.
Even conservative economists were suggesting pay increases of between 7 and 8 per cent to prevent the economy from overheating, he said. Whether or not there was a national agreement, Mr Shanahan added, "There is a compelling argument in our view for local bargaining."
However, unlike previous years, there was little debate at the conference on the merits of national agreements versus a free-for-all. No one rejected the partnership approach but, on the contrary, sought ways of pursuing it with Government and employers, regardless of whether there was a national pay deal or not.
The IMPACT general secretary, Mr Peter McLoone, whose union has traditionally supported national agreements, said workers' expectations had "changed dramatically" over the past 12 months. He said his union would not support social partnership simply to sustain economic growth.
The ICTU general secretary, Mr Peter Cassells, who has been a major architect of social partnership, told employers: "If you persist in grabbing the lion's share for yourselves, you will soon say goodbye to the Celtic Tiger."