A huge increase in university places is called for over the next two decades if Ireland's economic success is to continue. Failure to recognise this need will result in economic decline and increased social unrest.
So says the Conference of Heads of Irish Universities (CHIU) in its submission to the Review Group on the Future Needs of Higher Education in Ireland, which is chaired by Donal de Buitleir. CHIU estimates that the number of new entrants to Irish universities must increase by at least 14,000 by the year 2015 and that current enrolment must grow by 80 per cent if the demand for places is to be met. The submission, which has been seen by E&L, points to the OECD's view that the competitiveness of OECD countries will increasingly depend on their scientific and technological capacity as the main source of diversification and development of their economies; obviously there is a central role to be played by higher education in this.
Some 20 per cent of the Irish population aged between 25 and 64 years have completed third-level education - just below the OECD average of 22 per cent. "If Ireland is to compete internationally to attract inward investment on the basis of the high calibre of its workforce, surely we should be striving to do better that 13th place out 25 OECD countries," the university heads argue. The submission points to the economic, personal and social benefits which education confers. "There is very strong evidence," the document states, " that `human capital' acquired through formal education has significant value in terms of economic outcomes, both for the individual and for the economy . . . "Studies show that over the past 30 years, those countries which have invested most in human capital have grown most rapidly and, in a number of cases, have caught up with the world's economic leaders." People with third-level degrees enjoy higher rates of employment, earn more and on average spend more years in employment than do people with fewer educational attainments, CHIU says. University education in Ireland is good value - the returns on investment in university education in Ireland are the third highest in the OECD for men and the fourth highest for women. However, there are huge imbalances in the undergraduate population in this State, and demand for places is set to grow.
CHIU notes the exceptionally low participation by mature students in third-level education here compared with other OECD countries. "On average," the submission says, "for every one mature student who enters the third-level sector, five others are denied the chance to participate."
Based on the 1,350 mature students who entered third level in 1996-97, this would suggest an unmet demand for 6,750 extra places. CHIU notes "a major structural deficiency in Irish third-level education." Mature entry, if not being actively discouraged, it says, is not being facilitated or in any way promoted. CHUI suggests that the Government plans for a mature entry rate of 25 per cent by the year 2015.
However, it points out that already in Britain in 1996, 41 per cent of all entrants to higher education were mature students. "The Government must be challenged to take the necessary policy decision to ensure that Ireland at least matches the higher education provisions made by its competitor economies for mature students if it hopes to maintain its advantage of a highly educated workforce in what is increasingly a knowledge-based global economy."
Ireland, the heads note, has the second highest net outflow of students as a percentage of domestic third-level enrolment in the OECD. The vast majority travel to Britain. However, the abolition of fees in Ireland and the introduction of third-level fees in Britain will now put extra pressure on Irish universities.
The recent increase in the birth rate, if it continues, will also create an increased demand for places in the future. Increases in immigration too, will have a major impact on future entry and enrolment in third-level education: in the past seven years 35,000 children born elsewhere have moved to Ireland.
This latter group will reach college entry age within the review period. The implications of this have not been taken into account in official demographic forecasts, CHIU says. There is evidence too, of significant unmet demand for third-level education among school-leavers. On average, the submission notes, one in three qualified degree applicants receives no offer of a place and one in six qualified certificate or diploma applicants receives no offer. Extra places will also be required if the proposed National Qualifications Framework - Teastas - is put in place. The framework will facilitate progression between the technological sector and the university sector, and as a result the numbers going to Britain to acquire top up degrees will be reduced.
Pressure on university places at home, though, will naturally be increased. In its submission, CHIU highlights the need to increase participation rates among the socio-economic groups which are seriously underrepresented at third-level. Research shows that all but 11 per cent of the children of higher professionals enter full-time higher education, while only 13 per cent of the children of unskilled manual workers attend.
More targeted measures, the heads say, are required to deal with the issue of access for the disadvantaged. The submission also suggests that the correlation between socioeconomic status and participation in third-level education has implications for the demand for places. "If the members of a Leaving Certificate age cohort are skewed towards the upper socio-economic classes, then there will be a greater demand to participate in third-level education than would arise with a cohort of exactly the same size which was skewed towards the lower socio-economic classes."
Ireland is a relatively minor player in the area of ongoing labour force training and education. "If the required level of lifelong learning and training is to be provided at all, it must be provided by institutions in the education sector," CHIU says. Although the submission makes no attempt to quantify the impact of the provision of lifelong training and education facilities, it is clear that the benefits are enormous, the university heads say.
Where to next? The number of students traversing the `tunnel' at UCD will have to increase to meet demand and increase equity, university heads suggest
