Another prediction that a "soft landing" in the Irish housing market was most likely was given to the Teagasc rural entrepreneurship conference yesterday.
Jim Power, chief economist with Friends First, told the conference in Mullingar that strong fundamental forces were driving the housing market.
However, on the supply side, response had lagged and while demand was still very strong, the market had to be approaching equilibrium. Although affordability was now deteriorating he said that he believed there was not "a crisis situation".
He said a soft landing was the most likely and most desirable outcome but he warned that external risks needed to be monitored closely.
Mr Power, who had warned that the economy was too dependent on the housing market in an environment where the mortgage market had grown from €25 billion to €100 billion in six years, valued Irish housing stock at €530 billion.
He told the farmers that agriculture was one of the sectors which was under pressure in our changing economy. Employment as a percentage of the workforce had dropped from 9.1 per cent in 1998 to 5.9 per cent last year. He said the threats to rural economic sustainability from the demise of agriculture and pressures on traditional manufacturing, was one of the major economic issues.
The farmers were warned by Paul McCarthy, a Teagasc rural business specialist, that because direct payment from the EU last year, including arrears to farmers, equalled 94 per cent of income on Irish farms, standing still was not an option.
He predicted that the 2006 figure was likely to be 70 per cent of farm income but outside dairying, payments were likely to represent 100 per cent of farm income.