Early poll holds strong temptations for Chirac

FRENCH journalists wished they had tarot cards or tea leaves to read yesterday, as speculation about President Jacques Chirac's election plans continued for a third week.

The rumours, which have survived denials from the presidency and the Prime Minister's office, are that Mr Chirac will call an early parliamentary poll, or reshuffle his cabinet, or both.

The French President has in recent days invited numerous constitutional experts, members of parliament and estranged centre right politicians to the Elysee Palace for consultations.

France's next parliamentary elections are due in March 1998. But advocates of an early poll, which would in theory take place in June, say the coincidence of European Monetary Union and general elections would confuse voters. And the ruling centre right coalition could suffer politically in the meantime from enforcing austerity measures in compliance with Maastricht criteria.

Early elections could catch both the opposition Socialists and Mr Jean Marie Le Pen's extreme right National Front unprepared.

Finally, the term for the new assembly - five years - would fit exactly the remainder of Mr Chirac's presidential term, preempting the risk of a painful "cohabitation" if the right lost next March.

Mr Chirac's Rally for the Republic (RPR) party is divided about the advisability of early elections. Parliamentary deputy Mr Pierre Lellouche said: "The sooner the people choose, the sooner we can resume the reforms the country needs."

Opponents are led by another RPR deputy, Mr Pierre Mazeaud, who pointed out that, traditionally, early elections have been called only in times of great crisis.

An opinion poll published last weekend showed that 65 per cent of French people did not want the National Assembly to be dissolved. On the other hand, 40 per cent said they would like to see the government of the Prime Minister, Mr Alain Juppe, changed.

A cabinet reshuffle would enable Mr Chirac to unify the centre right by bringing former "Balladuriens" into the government. The centre right was split by rivalry between Mr Chirac and the then prime minister, Mr Edouard Balladur, in 1995.

Mr Francois Leotard, Mr Nicolas Sarkozy, Mr Charles Pasqua and Mr Alain Madelin, all former ministers, would be brought back in a reshuffle.

Mr Chirac may conclude it is more dangerous to wait than to call the voters out this summer. An opinion poll published yesterday said the Socialists could form the largest bloc in parliament next year if they made an alliance with the Communists and Greens.

But no group would win an absolute majority and victory for the left or right would hinge on a one percentage point shift in either direction.