THE indication by the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, in the United States last week, that there were grounds for hope of a renewed IRA ceasefire appear to be based on intelligence assessments that the proceasefire element within the IRA was again in the ascendant.
It would appear that those in the IRA and Sinn Fe in who support the "unarmed strategy" have managed to mount a successful challenge to the group which had brought about the end of the 18 month ceasefire.
After the renewal of the IRA bombing campaign on February 9th last, republican and Garda sources indicated that a very hard line group had taken control of the IRA.
This group is believed to be led by two men, both in their fifties and both known to hold hard line absolutist opinions about the IRA's use of force.
One is the IRA "chief of staff", a Co Tyrone man who has been living in a public authority housing estate in Co Monaghan for 20 years. He is seriously ill, and there has been speculation recently that he may be in physical decline.
The other very hard line army council figure lives in west Belfast, and is known to be also convinced of the notion that only "armed struggle" would achieve the IRA's aims of a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland.
The two are surrounded by similarly hard line militants. The "Chief of Staff's" supporters include a Sinn Fein figure from the Border area, IRA members from Tyrone and Fermanagh and one of the IRA men who was arrested, but released, in the aftermath of the murder of Detective Garda Gerry McCabe.
Some of the people in this group have been described by police as "fundamentalists" who would be prepared to see the North descend into bloody sectarian conflict.
The Belfast IRA man, who was highly critical of the ceasefire, is thought to have the support of one prominent IRA member who has a lengthy jail record and is now in Sinn Fein. This man is believed to have passed on his assessment during last year's talks between Sinn Fein and British officials that the IRA should call off its ceasefire.
Another former long term prisoner, prominent in republican circles, and one or two other figures in the Belfast IRA were also opposed to the ceasefire.
It was suspected, at one point, that within these groups there was the potential for a challenge to the republican leadership pairing of Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness, which has been in place since the mid 1980s.
Another IRA figure who Garda sources say contributed to the decision to call off the ceasefire is a Sinn Fein member, from the South, who has been involved in negotiations with Irish and, it is understood, United States officials throughout the ceasefire. It had been presumed that this man would have supported the ceasefire.
According to Garda intelligence, this man acted as liaison between the main Sinn Fein leadership and the IRA "chief of staff" in Monaghan but privately sided with the "chief of staff" on the decision to call off the ceasefire.
This man continued to be in contact with Government officials after December, 1995, at which stage he may have been backing the decision to end its ceasefire.
The last statement on policy from the IRA, on June 5th last, indicated the extent of the hard line within the organisation. It stated: "The likelihood of any IRA ceasefire is remote in the extreme." It demanded immediate entry into the talks process without any preconditions. It also stated: "The IRA will not be decommissioning its weapons through either the front or the hack doors."
Given the fact that such a determined group within the IRA had led the return to a campaign of violence, the anticipated turnaround and return to a ceasefire would appear to be a remarkable achievement for the "unarmed strategy" adherents.
The "unarmed strategy" has been a long term affair, launched by Mr Gerry Adams in 1989 during a series of internal debates in Sinn Fein. It took five years for the philosophy to take hold, and lead to the August, 1994 ceasefire. Its basic tenet is that if there is pan nationalist support for an end to partition, there is no longer any need for an armed struggle.
It is not clear what has brought round the IRA and Sinn Fein to again consider embracing a long term ceasefire. However, both the political and military wings of the organisation have suffered severe setbacks since the ceasefire was broken.
Sinn Fe in has been badly isolated both in Ireland and in the United States. Aside from the slamming of doors in the United States, the organisation's fund raising activities have suffered severe setbacks. However, it is understood that private negotiations with US State Department officials continued.
Sinn Fe in was also looking at the politically damaging prospect of being excluded from any agreement which arises from the talks process at Stormont.
The IRA also suffered several setbacks after achieving an element of surprise with the Canary Wharf bomb on February 9th last. Within the month, it was clear its bomb team in London was having difficulties as later bombs failed to explode. On February 18th a young Co Wicklow IRA man, Ed O'Brien, blew himself up and injured 20 people when the bomb he was carrying exploded prematurely.
The murder of Det Gda Gerry McCabe and injuring of his garda colleague set the republican cause back severely, and brought very considerable pressure on the IRA in the Republic.