Determined Blair puts pressure on Trimble

Mr Tony Blair's government has moved fast and far to secure an IRA ceasefire and Sinn Fein's participation in inclusive negotiations…

Mr Tony Blair's government has moved fast and far to secure an IRA ceasefire and Sinn Fein's participation in inclusive negotiations on Northern Ireland's future. A steady drip-feed of announcements and media disclosures has prepared public opinion for what amounts to a radical departure from the position occupied by Mr John Major's government. And the scale of that departure is acknowledged, at least privately, by Sinn Fein and the Government.

While Sinn Fein's Mr Martin McGuinness continues to seek "clarification" of the British terms, Dublin sources say Mr Blair has swiftly attempted to meet the Hume/Adams proposals rejected by Mr Major last autumn.

Even as the parades crisis took Northern Ireland once more to the brink, British officials were encouraged by the perceived restraint of public comments by the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams. Such shrewd assessments were, of course, aided by knowledge of the tone and content of Mr Adams's letter to Mr Blair of June 20th.

While pressing for specific British responses on the broad swathe of Sinn Fein's agenda, Mr Adams acknowledged the change marked by the British general election, telling Mr Blair: "Your government has addressed in a much more positive way the issues involved."

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Responding directly to the British position paper of June 13th, indicating a six-week timescale for Sinn Fein's entry into talks consequent upon an unequivocal ceasefire, Mr Adams said: "Sinn Fein comes very positively to the aide memoire. It is an advance on the position adopted by the previous British government."

Mr Blair had been expected to make his "last chance" offer to Sinn Fein in a Commons statement on June 19th. But after a meeting with Mr John Hume, the SDLP leader, the statement was delayed until the following Wednesday.

When it came it carried positive responses to some of the questions raised by Mr Adams on June 20th, specifically those concerning the role of the Independent Commission and dedicated sub-committee tasked to deal with the issue of decommissioning paramilitary weapons alongside the proposed substantive negotiations.

After at six telephone calls and a second Sinn Fein letter, the British government last night decided - under pressure from Mr David Trimble and Mr Ken Maginnis - to release the terms of its "clarificatory" reply, sent by a senior official to Mr Martin McGuinness on July 9th. And it appears to firm-up considerably the British response to that initial letter from Mr Adams of June 20th.

The British have resisted Sinn Fein's call for "substance and detail" on its pledge for confidence building measures and for its response to suggestions in the Mitchell Report for action on emergency legislation, licensed weapons, plastic bullets, policing and social and economic issues.

However, on prisoners issues, unionists may fancy they detect some evidence to bolster their suspicion that the government is engaged in "negotiation" rather than "clarification".

The government states its commitment that prisoners be treated with dignity. It adds that this principle will be applied "in considering the security classification and conditions of prisoners in the Special Secure Units in the review which would be conducted consequent on any significant diminution of the security threat and the threat of escape attempts".

However, on all such issues the British are able to say that these developments fall within established policy. Indeed, each step taken or proposed may be said to be wholly consistent with the previously declared objective of achieving a ceasefire and an inclusive process.

The logic flows from the original decision to abandon the "Washington Three" requirement for prior decommissioning ahead of talks.

The shock for the Ulster Unionists is that Mr Blair has "bought into" the "peace process". Until recently, leading UUP MPs apparently believed Mr Blair shared their conviction that there would be no ceasefire on terms sufficient to secure Sinn Fein's entry. It was for that reason - and not because he had changed his position - that Mr Trimble previously suggested the decommissioning issue could be "parked" or "pigeon-holed".

Now it has been confirmed that Sinn Fein - once admitted - could not be expelled for any failure to meet the decommissioning demand.

The "review process" is designed to prevent a block in any part of the negotiation: the hope for "a benign mutual dynamic on all the issues" so that "as mutual progress is made on political issues, confidence-building measures and decommissioning, this can create growing mutual trust and confidence on all sides".

That hope looked forlorn last night as leading Ulster Unionists vowed they would not enter negotiations on the agreed British/Irish terms. However, Mr Trimble and his colleagues have to wrestle with the truly new dimension brought by New Labour - Mr Blair's determination that the entire process be completed by May, and the assertion that the two governments "will pursue rapid progress to an overall settlement" should the talks process fail.

The unionist parties may be able to immobilise the existing talks process. But a British prime minister determined to win a ceasefire obviously must have in mind an alternative route down which republicans, if they wish, can travel.