CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: NORTHERN IRELANDThis election could see Jim Allister establish his Traditional Unionist Voice as a formidable new force, writes GERRY MORIARTY
THE POLITICAL landscape after the votes are counted in the Northern Ireland European constituency will be decidedly altered.
That’s because of the wildcard candidate in this battle, Jim Allister. There is little doubt he will do damage to the DUP and the size of his vote will determine the extent of the damage.
Allister abandoned Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson because of the DUP/Sinn Féin powersharing deal to set up his own party, the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). “No powersharing with terrorists” is his bottom line.
There is also interest in how Jim Nicholson will fare now that he is running on an Ulster Unionist/Conservatives ticket considering the recent Ulster Unionist in-fighting triggered by that hook-up with Tory leader David Cameron. The Ulster Unionists’ only MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon, has expressed her unhappiness with the UUP/Tory arrangement, triggering party squabbling at a time when there should be unity.
The SDLP’s lawyer candidate, Alban Maginness, argues all this internecine unionist feuding could allow him sneak a seat.
Diane Dodds of the DUP says it is a certainty a woman will top the poll, either her or Bairbre de Brún, and if unionists fail to ensure she comes home first then Sinn Féin will achieve a dangerous and, for unionists, demoralising victory.
The DUP could be digging a hole for itself here. The bookies make de Brún 1/3 to take the chequered flag with Dodds at 2/1.
Nonetheless the DUP keeps banging this drum probably because this argument has generally worked in the past. In the great European battles between Ian Paisley and John Hume – even when Ulster Unionism was in the ascendant – unionists made sure the Doc was returned ahead of the SDLP leader. Even mild-mannered unionists, those who at that time would have abhorred much of what Paisley then stood for, realised how Hume heading the poll would play at home and abroad.
They weren’t going to gift the SDLP a propaganda victory.
But Allister has strong logical counter-arguments: principally that Peter Robinson has no business claiming out on the canvass at night that Sinn Féin must be defeated, while by day working with Sinn Féin in the Northern Executive and Assembly.
To emphasise that point the TUV website features a cartoon from Ian Knox that was carried in the Irish News. It shows DUP Finance Minister Nigel Dodds having breakfast with his candidate wife Diane. Says Nigel: “I’m going to discuss financial matters with my (Sinn Féin) colleague Mitchel McLaughlin today, dear. What are you planning?” Diane replies: “I’m going to smash Sinn Féin, dear.”
If de Brún tops the poll there will be hell to pay in all unionist camps afterwards. Sinn Féin is keeping its head down about de Brún being returned first, but it would be a sweet coup for Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness if it could be achieved.
Allister’s opponents say he is living in cloud-cuckoo land if he thinks he can force the largest nationalist party out of the political equation. Nonetheless there is a fundamentalist unionist constituency out there – regardless of the relative peace and the Stormont politics, they just cannot tolerate a Shinner about the place. And they are single-minded people who will vote, whereas there is considerable apathy among the rest of the population. Barely more than 50 per cent voted in the last European election.
Allister argues that he can hold his seat, possibly taking the third one and maybe at the expense of Jim Nicholson of the Ulster Unionists/Conservatives. Because of the unpredictability of how the split unionist vote turns out, it is possible – though right now it does seem an ambition too far.
Allister certainly can win 20,000-40,000 votes and possibly more, thus setting up the TUV as a formidable force that could take four to six seats and possibly more in the next Assembly elections – seats that could come at the expense of the DUP, and upset the delicate balance of power at Stormont. It could even give Allister a reasonable chance of taking Ian Paisley’s seat in North Antrim if Dr Paisley decides to retire from Westminster.
For the past 20 years Jim Nicholson has been returned for the Ulster Unionists, always coming in with the transfer assistance of Ian Paisley, and in the last election of Jim Allister.
The extra unionist candidate does make it more difficult for Nicholson this time.
Recently, American statistician Michael Moriarty put forward a reasonable case explaining how changes in the electoral register could allow the SDLP’s Alban Maginness to garner enough votes to be returned on the blind side. But he also said the party must get the canvass teams out on the doorsteps to make that possible, and that has been the recent problem for the SDLP, not having the machine on the ground.
Ian Parsley for Alliance says he is tired of hearing the rather tasteless joke that because of his surname he could win the DUP dyslexic vote.
He believes that Alliance will do well because of the disenchantment with mainstream politics.
Prediction: Bairbre de Brún (Sinn Féin), Diane Dodds (DUP), and Jim Nicholson (Ulster Unionists/Conservatives).
Candidates
Jim Allister(Traditional Unionist Voice – DUP at last election)
Bairbre de Brún(Sinn Féin)
Jim Nicholson(Ulster Conservatives and Unionists/New Force)
Diane Dodds(DUP)
Alban Maginness(SDLP)
Ian Parsley(Alliance)
Steven Agnew(Green)
OUTGOING MEPS:
Jim Allister(Traditional Unionist Voice – DUP at last election)
Bairbre de Brún(Sinn Féin)
Jim Nicholson(Ulster Conservatives and Unionists/New Force)