ANALYSIS:British politics may never be the same after the electorate chose to leave their legislators struggling with a hung parliament, writes MARK HENNESSY, London Editor
DAVID CAMERON is in pole position to become the United Kingdom’s next prime minister but the House of Commons arithmetic means he may not enjoy the role for long.
With just one seat to be filled later this month because of the death of a candidate, the Conservatives have 306 seats, up 97, Labour has fallen by 91 to 258, while the Liberal Democrats have dropped five to 57.
The first machinations in the battle to form a government came quickly. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said the Conservatives should have first go because they had won most seats and most votes.
The Liberal Democrats are fearful of any alliance. Former leader David Steel was among those who said the most they should do is support the Conservatives on policies agreeable to the party.
The Lib Dems have only one chance to transform the electoral rules. But Clegg doesn’t trust Labour to honour its belatedly-devised pledges of reform, while the Conservatives are offering him little or nothing.
Cameron offered the Lib Dems, still grieving about the disappearance of their hopes for major gains, two options: support him on an a la carte basis from the backbenches, as Lord Steel proposed, or enjoy something more.
The Tory leader made easy concessions on education and the creation of a green economy; action could happen in time to cut taxes for the lower-paid. But on the crucial question of electoral reform he offered nothing but a parliamentary committee.
The Lib Dems have their ideas; the Conservatives their own, he said, so, therefore, let there be a report. Hinting that he might go further, he did, however, acknowledge that the talks ahead will “involve compromise”.
In parallel, Conservative foreign affairs spokesman William Hague indicated that giving cabinet places to Liberal Democrats would not be an insurmountable obstacle, while former Conservative prime minister John Major said “one, or two” Liberal Democrat ministers was a price he “could bear”.
These are, however, but the baubles of office. Without electoral reform, the Liberal Democrat leader is in a bind. Much of the party’s grassroots are complaining that he should not have put Cameron ahead of Labour’s Gordon Brown so quickly in the race for government.
As unconfirmed rumours swirled last night that the Conservatives would offer Clegg a referendum on electoral reform, which they would then oppose in that campaign, Cameron also faces difficulties.
There were already signals from newly elected Conservative MPs that they would insist Cameron bring back any pact agreed with the Lib Dems for their approval, while mutterings about the need for an emergency meeting of the 1922 committee of backbenchers also circulated.
Cameron has room for manoeuvre. Electoral reform is the issue of the moment, though it is likely to fade in the public’s mind given the difficulties that will emerge economically in coming weeks.
Furthermore, the Lib Dems have a choice between supporting, or, at least, not opposing a Conservative leader who made gains in the election, even if he did not do enough to win; or a leader in the shape of Gordon Brown who clearly lost.
Certainly, the landscape would be transformed if Brown quit. But he shows no inclination to do so. Even if he did, there would be a race to replace him and the Lib Dems would have to sign a coalition deal with Labour before they knew who would be taking over.
Cameron does not have a majority, but he may have enough for a while.
Supported by the DUP, he could produce an emergency budget within 50 days and hope that the Lib Dems would abstain rather than risk blame for sending the UK back to the polls within weeks.
Following Clegg’s decision to put Cameron in the lead, Brown acknowledged he could do little until the Clegg/Cameron talks, which began by telephone last night, end. “Clearly, should the discussions between Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg come to nothing, then I would of course be prepared to discuss with Mr Clegg the areas where there may be some measure of agreement between our two parties,” he said.
Senior Labour figures are desperate to get back into the game. Peter Mandelson has repeatedly said that the electoral system is broken and must be fixed, offering a referendum on changes.
Welsh secretary Peter Hain was more blunt: “I think the Liberal Democrats ought seriously to consider this because I don’t see another offer like this coming around, if ever, then for a long time.”
Meanwhile, the world watches and the international bond markets could exact a painful price if a new government is long delayed.