Confusion of allegations creating a crisis

Gerry Adams, in telling us that he would remain on this side of the Atlantic when the US House Committee meets in Washington …

Gerry Adams, in telling us that he would remain on this side of the Atlantic when the US House Committee meets in Washington today, remarked that we live in interesting times. He didn't say it but he was fully conscious that this is a Chinese curse.

There are now the makings of a political crisis in Northern Ireland when there should be no crisis. The alleged IRA Colombian connection, Castlereagh, talks of spooks, malicious leaks and alleged Russian gun-running are raising political temperatures.

Add to that the claims that provisional republicans were involved in last week's murder of taxi driver Barney McDonald in Donaghmore, Co Tyrone, and it's easy to see how the cumulative effect of all these allegations and speculation could destabilise politics here.

It's not often the Sinn FΘin president refuses invitations to the US, but Mr Adams's view was that he was trapped in a catch-22 situation and that the least-worst option was to stay in Belfast rather than face Congressman Henry Hyde and his International Relations Committee.

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His legal advice was that the hearings - and his presence at them - could be prejudicial to the trial of the three republicans arrested in Colombia. Congressman Hyde lent some validity to this comment when he baldly claimed yesterday that two of those arrested were IRA explosives experts.

Politicians have a different view of due process in the US.

From Sinn FΘin's standpoint, a more damaging detailing of these allegations may be narrated at the hearings today. These could include claims that up to 15 provisional republicans, some of them very senior, have visited Colombia in the past and that innocent people died as a result of what FARC learned from the alleged IRA bomb-makers.

From a US perspective, the most damning allegation could be that the IRA's alleged engagement with FARC in Colombia has damaged American interests. Mr Adams understands how important it is in keeping the US administration and Irish-America sweet.

At his press conference yesterday, he said that had he known that the three republicans were travelling to Colombia he would have told them to "catch yourselves on" and not be messing in "America's back yard".

The general political reaction yesterday was along the lines enunciated by Progressive Democrats president Michael McDowell, who when Mr Adams also refused to address the Oireachtas Foreign Affairs Committee on Colombia and FARC, portrayed Sinn FΘin as "yellow".

Mr Adams was fairly philosophical about the current difficulties. He had the appearance of a man who felt republicans could ride with the punches and not suffer too much damage whether in Irish-America, electorally in the Republic or among supporters in the North.

A senior Sinn FΘin source even had the temerity to suggest that the current travails facing republicans would be good for David Trimble: it would allow him to flex his muscles without having to take the blame because all the blame for Colombia, Mr McDonald's murder, IRA intelligence-gathering on Tories and alleged Russian gun-running is being levelled at either the IRA or the so-called securocrats, or in some cases both.

It seems more accurate to state however that the current confusion of allegations is putting pressure on Mr Trimble and pro-agreement unionists and consequently on the political process generally. It must be particularly galling for the Ulster Unionist Yes camp because it certainly didn't create these difficulties.

But that won't stop Mr Trimble's sceptics, whom he had subdued, and the DUP exploiting this to undermine him. There are even hints that No unionists see possibilities of mounting another direct or indirect challenge to his leadership through an Ulster Unionist Council meeting.

It's a potential crisis that Mr Trimble did not manufacture and could have done without. The rest of the pro-agreement camp outside Sinn FΘin is similarly irked with provisional republicans who are part authors of the current problems, thanks to the IRA's reluctance to keep out of the plot. What a mess when there should be no mess.