Coded signal to London may prompt like response

MR Gerry Adams's article in The Irish Times today proves once again that the gap that needs to be traversed by republicans and the British government to create a new IRA cease fire remains relatively narrow. However, there is an absence of bridge builders.

Mutual distrust between republicans and the British government has created a stand off. Neither Sinn Fein nor the British government seems prepared to lay the first stone - and Mr John Hume's current talk of moral imperatives demanding an IRA ceasefire seems to carry little weight with republicans.

So, is Mr Adams's article a sign of a shift in republican thinking? Certainly Sinn Fein, which offered the article to this newspaper, has flagged it as being particularly significant and ground breaking.

Perhaps if it has the imprimatur of the IRA Army Council, it would indicate a republican desire to see movement. But Mr Adams, who was "doorstepped" by reporters in west Belfast yesterday, gave no hint of any IRA change of gear.

However, as one senior republican observed yesterday: "Sometimes this sort of thing can reflect the public dimension of something that is happening in private."

The Hume Adams dialogue is continuing, despite Mr Hume's broadside against Sinn Fein on Thursday, and the suggestion was that this article may be more for British government consumption than for others.

Mr Adams said his work with Mr Hume aimed at achieving a negotiated political settlement would transcend electoral differences. In a press conference yesterday, he insisted that Mr Hume's onslaught on Sinn Fein in an Irish News article this week would not undermine relations between them.

While there appears to be a certain disingenuousness in Mr Adams's commentary, his tone and language are interesting. What he writes he has written and said before.

But Mr Adams does concede that an unequivocal restoration of the IRA ceasefire would "represent the most important confidence building initiative on the IRA's part". And, he adds, if the British did give clear assurances about inclusive talks, then the "peace process can be restored".

Mr Adams states pointedly:

"The need to address these issues should not be put off until after the British general election. Sinn Fein has attempted to clarify its position on the issues of concern to the British government and in a way which allows space for the British to respond positively."

Implicit in that is if Mr Major went a little further in guaranteeing inclusive talks, then there could be a ceasefire before the election. Mr Adams, however, must know that, in the context of the recent IRA killing of a British soldier and other such incidents, Mr Major would be extremely unlikely to risk any pre election deal.

Additional comments made, bay Mr Adams yesterday indicate it is unlikely that Mr Major will respond positively prior to the election. He acknowledged that Mr Major "being in hock to the unionists and Tory right wing" was unlikely to take such a gamble.

The Sinn Fein president made no reference to the fact that IRA killings and bombings might be making it increasingly difficult for Mr Major to risk any association with Sinn Fein, despite urgings from Mr Adams and Mr Hume.

The British government has gone some way towards providing such a guarantee. In July last year Mr Major demanded an unequivocal and lasting restoration of the IRA ceasefire.

He laid out a four step process through which Sinn Fein could come to inclusive talks following a cease fire. The rub was that Mr Major did not specify a timetable, although he was at pains to suggest that British procrastination associated with the first IRA ceasefire would be absent this time.

"We wish to see inclusive talks involving all parties as soon as possible," said Mr Major.

But the commitment to talks was too qualified for Mr Adams's, Sinn Fein's and the IRA's liking.

Mr Adams's article may be laying down markers to indicate that, either before or after the Westminster election, the republican movement will be amenable to some bridge building. It may even presage some equally coded response from the British government. In the meantime, the gulf remains.