US:Hillary Clinton claims she is the only Democratic candidate who can defeat McCain in Ohio and Florida, writes DENIS STAUNTONin Washington
WHEN HILLARY Clinton heard that New Mexico governor Bill Richardson was planning to endorse Barack Obama, she reportedly told him: "He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win."
The Clinton campaign claims that Richardson first raised questions about Obama's viability as the Democratic nominee weeks before the endorsement, but there is no doubt that Clinton supporters are making the "electability" argument central to their pitch to superdelegates.
Clinton has long believed that, in a general election, she can not only win every state that John Kerry won in 2004, but could snatch Florida or Ohio from the Republicans. Either state would be enough to tip the Democrat over the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency.
Clinton defeated Obama comfortably in last month's Ohio primary, and polls show her ahead of John McCain in the state, where Obama trails the Republican senator. Obama is also behind McCain in Florida, where Clinton runs about even with the Republican.
The Clinton campaign maintains that Obama could be vulnerable in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, which voted for Kerry in 2004 but have large numbers of white, working-class voters. They say that, while Obama's base of African-Americans and affluent, college-educated liberals will vote Democratic regardless of the candidate, her supporters among women, older voters and the white-working class are potential swing voters who could choose McCain.
For his part, Obama does not concede that he would lose Florida and Ohio in a general election, but his supporters argue that his unique candidacy has put new states in play that could give him the presidency without those two states.
Obama points to his strong performance in two states that voted for George Bush in 2004, but have been tilting towards the Democrats in other races: Virginia and Colorado.
Both states have seen demographic changes in recent years that have boosted Democrats, and Obama believes that his crossover appeal to Republicans and Independents could deliver them to his column.
He believes that a number of southern and western states are ready to swing towards the Democrats, partly because their voters are getting younger and more liberal.
However, Obama's "electability" argument goes beyond the traditional division of states into red for Republicans and blue for Democrats. He says he can attract so many new voters that states that have not been competitive for Democrats for many years could vote for him.
Obama's deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, told the Politico this week that attracting Independents and registering new voters would be a key element of the general election campaign.
"Can it change the math in Ohio? Very much so," he said. "If you look at the vote spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004 - we could potentially erase that."
Republicans have been more successful than Democrats in registering new voters and persuading them to turn out, partly because controversies over abortion and gay rights have galvanised religious conservatives.
Neither issue promises to be as incendiary in 2008 as in earlier elections, and McCain is in any case less effective than Bush at connecting with religious voters.
However, Clinton's team argues that McCain's appeal to Hispanic voters, on account of his support for comprehensive immigration reform, will make him a stronger candidate in the new, southwestern battleground states. Hispanic voters have backed Clinton over Obama by wide margins in most primaries until now.
Meanwhile, Obama announced yesterday that he raised $40 million (€25.5 million) from more than 440,000 donors in March, with contributions averaging $96.
"Senator Obama has always said that this campaign would rise or fall on the willingness of the American people to become partners in an effort to change our politics and start a new chapter in our history," campaign manager David Plouffe said.
"Today we're seeing the American people's extraordinary desire to change Washington, as tens of thousands of new contributors joined the more than a million Americans who have already taken ownership of this campaign for change.
"Many of our contributors are volunteering for the campaign, making our campaign the largest grassroots army in recent political history."
Clinton will not announce her March fundraising figure until later this month, but media reports suggest that she raised about $20 million.