US:The US says bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world, writes Joby Warrick.
LESS THAN a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA director Michael Hayden now portrays the movement as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major gains against al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an increasingly successful campaign to destabilise the group's core leadership.
While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat, Hayden said Osama bin Laden was losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and had largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents. Two years ago, a CIA study concluded that the US-led war had become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda, generating cash donations and legions of volunteers.
All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with the Washington Post this week that coincided with the start of his third year at the helm of the CIA.
"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally - and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically', as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.
The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other US intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghan-Pakistani border. But analysts say the US has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.
Others warned that al-Qaeda remains capable of catastrophic attacks, and may be even more determined to stage a major strike to prove its relevance. "Al-Qaeda's obituary has been written far too often in the past few years for anyone to declare victory," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. "I agree that there has been progress. But we're indisputably up against a very resilient and implacable enemy."
A landmark study last August by the 16 US intelligence agencies described the border area as a de facto al-Qaeda haven in which terrorist leaders were reorganising for attacks against the West. But Hayden said counterterrorism successes extend even to that lawless region. US intelligence agencies have carried out several attacks there since January, using unmanned Predator aircraft for strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban safe houses.
"The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance - even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border," Hayden said.
But terrorism experts note the lack of success in the US effort to capture bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Intelligence officials say they think both are living in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal area in locations known only to a few top aides. Hayden said capturing or killing the pair remained a top priority, though he noted the difficulties in finding them in a rugged, remote region where the US military is officially forbidden to operate.
The Bush administration has been watching political developments in Pakistan with apprehension, worried that the country's newly elected leadership would not be as tolerant of occasional unilateral US strikes against al-Qaeda as was the government of President Pervez Musharraf, a close ally in the US fight against terrorism.
Since the start of the year, Hayden said, al-Qaeda's global leadership had lost three senior officers, including two who succumbed "to violence", an apparent reference to Predator strikes that killed terrorist leaders Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi in Pakistan. He also cited a successful blow against "training activity" in the region.
Despite the optimistic outlook, he said he was concerned that the progress against al-Qaeda could be halted or reversed because of what he considers growing complacency and a return to the mindset that existed before the attacks of September 11th, 2001.
His concern stems in part from improved intelligence-gathering that has bolstered the CIA's understanding of al-Qaeda's intent, he said.
"The fact that we have kept [Americans] safe for pushing seven years now has got them back into the state of mind where 'safe' is normal," he said. "Our view is: safe is hard-won, every 24 hours."
Hayden, who has previously highlighted a gulf between Washington and its European allies on how to battle terrorism, said he was troubled that the US Congress and much of the media were "focused less on the threat and more on the tactics the nation has chosen to deal with the threat" - a reference to controversial CIA interrogation techniques approved by Hayden's predecessors.
"The centre line of the national discussion has moved, and in our business, our centre line is more shaped by the reality of the threat," Hayden said.
- (LA Times-Washington Post)