China's trade surplus rebounded in March from a downturn a month earlier as exports, holding up well despite deepening gloom over the US economy, outpaced imports for the first time in six months.
The surplus was $13.4 billion, up from $8.56 billion in February and $6.9 billion a year earlier, the customs administration said today.
China's trade figures are difficult to interpret at the start of the year because factories shut down for the long Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at different times each year.
This year's figures were further muddied by fierce winter weather that disrupted production and snarled transport across much of southern China in January and February.
Taking a longer view to smooth out statistical distortions, the rolling 12-month surplus recovered to $257.1 billion in March from $250.6 billion in February.
But that was less than the calendar-year 2007 surplus of $262.2 billion, suggesting that the surplus is growing more slowly or perhaps even cresting.
"It's very likely that this year's trade surplus will not grow as much as last year. This is good. This is what the Chinese government has targeted for many years," said Chris Leung, an economist at DBS in Hong Kong.
The surplus for the first quarter shrank to $41.4 billion from $46.5 billion in the first three months of 2007.
Zhao Qingming, an economist at China Construction Bank in Beijing, was surprised at the 30.6 per cent rise in exports in March against a year earlier and suggested that invoices had been padded to bring more speculative money into China.
"External demand from Western countries, including the United States, Britain and Europe, is very sluggish, which does not support such a fast rise in export growth," Mr Zhao said. Exports to the United States rose just 5 per cent in the first quarter.