Chilly conditions expected when Bush and Putin meet

The idea of a Russian and US 'partnership' is now part of history, writes Chris Stephen in Moscow

The idea of a Russian and US 'partnership' is now part of history, writes Chris Stephen in Moscow

A summit as cold as the Bratislava winter snow is guaranteed today when President George Bush meets Russia's Mr Vladimir Putin in the Slovak capital. It will follow comments this week when the US president chastised his Moscow opposite number.

Mr Bush might have come to western Europe this week to "build bridges", but he has taken a very different line with Moscow, saying on Monday: "For Russia to make progress as a European nation, the Russian government must renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law."

It is a sign that the hostility generated between the two nations over Ukraine's presidential election last December has not healed.

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Back then the US supported opposition leader Mr Viktor Yushchenko, while Moscow backed Mr Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister later accused of election fraud.

During the "Orange Revolution" that ended with fresh elections and victory for Mr Yushchenko, the two powers each accused the other of interfering with Ukrainian politics.

This hostility is not limited to Ukraine. Washington has criticised Mr Putin's consolidation of power at home which has seen the state take control of TV and regional elections for governors scrapped in favour of a system where Mr Putin now appoints them.

US oil companies are also wary after the prosecution of Russian oil tycoon Mr Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who's oil giant, Yukos, was auctioned back to the state in a policy that looks to many like renationalisation.

Washington has concluded that co-operation against terrorism with Russia is of little value - although Middle Eastern extremists are in action in Chechnya, they have no direct bearing on America's own war on terror.

However, the real issue is the competition between Moscow and Washington for influence among the former states of the Soviet Union.

This tussle is almost a throwback to the Cold War, when Moscow and Russia played superpower chess, with smaller states traded like pawns.

A similar game is being played in the former states of the Soviet Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), with the Ukraine spat its most glaring example.

Washington poured money into funding Ukraine's opposition groups in the run-up to last November's elections, and the effort worked, with Mr Yushchenko turning his back on Moscow in favour of the West.

Washington has had similar success by supporting Georgia's pro-democracy "Rose Revolution" in 2003, and may do so yet again next month after backing opposition groups in Moldova.

Mr Putin has scrambled to counter this by creating a customs union, supposedly a Moscow-centred trading block to act as a counterweight to the EU. But as fast as states join this organisation, they leave - with Ukraine being the latest.

Moscow is already furious that NATO and the EU have been hoovering up former communist states, including the CIS countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Now a new "front" in this battle has opened in central Asia, with tussles over influence in oil-rich states such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Policymakers in Moscow and Washington now see their relationship if not as foes then certainly as competitors, with the old idea of "partnership" now consigned to history.

Mr Putin's mission is to rebuild a strong Russia as an independent force in the world, rather than see it locked into some sort of global village. He has not been afraid to take aim at Washington, announcing late last year a new nuclear missile designed to penetrate US defences.

Mr Putin badly needs a foreign policy success. The loss of Ukraine damaged his prestige, and his domestic support is at its lowest level since he came to power in 2000 after his government slashed benefits support for pensioners.

Meanwhile economic growth has stalled, and the war in Chechnya has now spread across other regions in the Caucuses.

And both men still need each other. America wants Russia to join it in isolating Iran and North Korea, while Russia wants the US to stop supporting opposition parties in Central Asia.

Mr Putin wants US support for its application to join the World Trade Organisation, while Mr Bush wants assurances that US oil companies will not be frozen out of exploiting huge new fields in Russia and central Asia.

A potential deal on these issues looms for both men. The question is whether either president will be in a mood to make it.