OUR Ken, the hero? It seemed improbable not so long ago. Just over a month ago, to be precise. Lord Tebbit led the charge to the Bournemouth party conference demanding his head. For the Thatcherite dispossessed he had assumed demon status. Mr Clarke, they raged, stood alone against the decision which would turn the electoral tide.
And their advice to Mr Major was blunt rule out the single currency for the life of the next parliament, lose a Chancellor, and win the election.
It was a patently daft proposition. The cabinet had carefully crafted its referendum compromise over the currency issue - outflanking Labour in the process. A renewal of the civil war and the loss of one of the government's real heavyweights would simply blow any prospect of political recovery. But the Tory party has shown itself daft enough since 1992. And party managers made no secret of their anxiety about both the Chancellor's performance, and his reception by the faithful.
In the end they need not have worried. Mr Clarke didn't just survive the week, he emerged triumphant with a bravura performance which won an ecstatic ovation from a party rank and file plainly hungry for unity. And when he makes his traditional appearance outside Number 11 Downing Street next Tuesday, the Chancellor will carry their electoral hopes in his battered red box.
Those hopes, by the way, have been quietly growing. Ministers' may well exaggerate what is happening on the ground. But we should not be misled by the headline figures in the opinion polls. Certainly the recent poll suggesting a 26 point lead for Labour was, a rogue.
Both parties sense the real Labour lead is closer to 14 points. And while few backbenchers are, yet rash enough to predict victory, a significant number of them are beginning to believe they can win.
On a wide range of issues the Tories have the makings of a good campaign. Mr Major's Brussels bashing strikes a chord with a decidedly Euro sceptic public. The notorious "eyes" poster campaign, has tapped into continuing unease about Mr Blair. And the Tories believe the economy will still prove their ace card.
As if to order, figures released this week confirmed a massive tax haul in October giving Mr Clarke considerably more room for manoeuvre next Tuesday. The City immediately warned against a giveaway budget. But Mr Clarke looks well placed to keep the City sweet, while presiding over a Budget which reduces taxes and borrowing while increasing spending on education and the national health service.
Mr Clarke moved quickly to defuse public expectations after the announcement that the government had raised £4.4 billion more in tax revenue than it spent last month. Signalling continuing prudence, the Chancellor insisted the figures merely confirmed he was on target to hit his forecast of £26.9 billion government borrowing this year. But City analysts forecast a considerable undershoot in the projected Public Sector Borrowing Requirement. Mr David Walton, economist with Goldman Sachs, suggested "a PSBR of £23/£24 bn is more likely compared with the Treasury's summer forecast". Those assessments in turn triggered speculation that the Chancellor could be tempted to go for a headline grabbing 2p cut in the basic rate of tax, as the launch pad for the election campaign.
If affordable, that would represent a significant move toward the government's declared objective of a basic rate of 20p. At the same time it would meet the argument that the government would be unwise to blow all its tax "bribes" in bone go holding some in reserve as an incentive to people to vote Conservative.
Whatever Mr Clarke does, the fair will be thick come Tuesday with talk of pre election bribery.
Labour will seek to cast doubt on the reliability of any reductions - reminding people that the Tories pledged to cut tax at the last election, and promptly raised it thereafter. And Labour's rhetoric, of course, will also seek to mask their difficulty in deciding whether or not to oppose any tax cuts in the debate on Mr Clarke's Finance Bill.
But there are other constraints on Mr Clarke. And the whole pre budget debate is an interesting illustration of the limits on ministerial power in determining economic policy. The markets will want reassurance that the government is balancing its books, and that it is not recklessly pumping money into an economy already thought by some to be growing too fast.
This reality loomed in conversations this week with several senior Tory MPs. "The City is the safety valve these days," said one, urging "a responsible budget". Asked what change the budget might make to the party's fortunes, another reported: "Not much, I hope. The signs are that policy is far too lax. The bank's warnings appear to be justified." The worry is that a giveway budget will fuel inflationary pressures, prompting the banks to counter tax cuts with higher lending rates. An MP on the left agrees, and predicts: "Ken won't play to the political gallery." Well, not entirely. But within the framework of a prudent budget statement, he and others expect, the Chancellor to carefully target" key elements in the Conservative constituency - the elderly, the small businessman, and the family.
That would appear to be the bare minimum necessary. It isn't possible to believe all electoral, thoughts will be sacrificed in the name of fiscal prudence. The Conservative "family" has had to wait a long time for a feelgood factor. It expects Mr Clarke to provide it and to give Labour a headache in the process. It's hard to believe, wise, prudent, canny Ken won't doe his damndest to deliver both.