Trying to kick-start the Cork South Central by-election is proving a tad more difficult for the parties concerned than might have been anticipated.
This can be attributed to the fact that the personable figure of Simon Coveney, son of the late Fine Gael minister, Hugh Coveney, who died in a tragic accident last March, is in the field, and that a rising tide has lifted all boats. Cork is doing well. There are problems, of course, and while they are not easily solved they are identifiable.
Thus, if you put the election manifestos in the bin and merely listen to what the candidates are saying, you will find that they are speaking not in divers tongues but with the same one. They are at pains to deny this, but neither television appearances nor radio debates can mask the fact that to all intents and purposes they are paddling the same canoe. Like a mantra, each of them has been chanting the same catalogue of evils - traffic problems, health service crisis, housing crisis.
For Fine Gael there is the need to continue the Coveney tradition in the constituency with a young and vibrant candidate, but above all, to prevent Fianna Fail from taking a fourth seat, allowing the party to become complacent. With numbers tight in the Dail, Fianna Fail would dearly love the cushion of an extra seat.
Labour's view is that in Toddy O'Sullivan it has the most experienced, longest-serving and battle-hardened politician in the field, whose integrity and will to serve cannot be questioned. Dan Boyle of the Green Party, and Peter Kelly of the Progressive Democrats, bar an unforeseen upset, will probably do no better than improve the standing of the two parties in the constituency. Brian McEnery of the Natural Law Party and Henry Cremin of Sinn Fein, realistically, cannot expect to be at the races.
So where is the spice in this campaign? If it materialised at all, it was last week at a news conference, when Toddy O'Sullivan railed against ageism. He was concerned, he said, that references were being made by the other candidates to his mature years.
Being sixty something he has a few years on his younger opponents, but Simon Coveney and his Fianna Fail marker, Sinead Behan, a solicitor in Cork, as well as Dan Boyle and Peter Kelly, have merely emphasised their own youthfulness rather than denigrating O'Sullivan's age. As Simon Coveney put it: "Toddy O'Sullivan is well able to speak for himself. I must put my own best attributes forward."
So, given what has been a lacklustre campaign, we must look at the figures for any kind of guidance. In the last general election Micheal Martin and Hugh Coveney were elected on the first count, with Martin just ahead by 128 votes. Fianna Fail secured 42.6 per cent of the vote, an increase from 36.08 per cent in 1992.
Fine Gael increased its vote from 18.23 per cent in 1992 to 30.57 per cent, while Labour dropped from 18.03 per cent to 8.92. The PDs dropped several points to 4.19 per cent, but the Green Party vote went up from 2.18 per cent to 4.19. Others, including Sinn Fein, were not in the reckoning.
Most pundits believe that this election will be about transfers. Simon Coveney entered the field as the clear favourite, a tag he has been trying hard to shake off. The equally personable Sinead Behan has shown in both the popular perception and the bookmakers' calculations that she intends to give him a run for his money. Her odds are shortening.
Toddy O'Sullivan has been written off before, much to his chagrin. He commands immense respect in the constituency and has a loyal following. Whether it will be enough is another matter. Coveney will bring out the young vote and also supporters loyal to the family name who are not so young. If he polls well initially, as many think he will, the matter will come down to transfers.
Hugh Coveney was one of the most popular politicians ever produced in Cork. That popularity crossed party lines. I suspect the voters of Cork South Central will reflect this on polling day and that Coveney jnr will take the seat, despite the fact that Sinead Behan is closing on him.