Can he terminate California's economic crisis?

US / Analysis : His stunning victory sent shock waves through American politics, but he said little about the budget mess, writes…

US / Analysis: His stunning victory sent shock waves through American politics, but he said little about the budget mess, writes Conor O'Clery.

"What do we do now?" Robert Redford asked at the end of the movie, The Candidate, when he had just won an election on the basis of his looks and platitudinous slogans.

Arnold Schwarzenegger might be asking the same question after his stunning victory in the California recall election. The movie actor talked a lot about "taking California back" but little about how he will handle the state's economic mess.

That test will come when he arrives here in Sacramento, the state capital, to be sworn in as Republican governor with a Democratic legislature in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, as hotel workers swept up the confetti from Tuesday night's victory celebrations in the same Los Angeles hotel room where I saw another actor, Ronald Reagan, celebrate his 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter - the impact of Mr Schwarzenegger's election was sending shock waves through American politics.

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The news was a big boost to an embattled White House. The Republican Party has a new celebrity and has won control over the largest state. The downside for President Bush was that it represented a popular uprising against "politics as usual" and "President George Bush should take heed," Democratic Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi warned.

There is much Democratic anger in America, too, and a hatred among liberals for Mr Bush, something that Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has successfully tapped into. As an old-style Rockefeller Republican, Mr Schwarzenegger also poses problems down the road for the Republican Party. With his liberal views on gun control, abortion and gay rights, the new California governor may be an embarrassing presence for religious conservatives at next year's Republican convention in New York. Many of them see a Democrat in Republican clothing.

The allegations of groping women are also problematic for a party that made Clinton's carnal sins such a huge issue. Because of this, Gov Mitt Romney of Massachusetts opted not to campaign with the Terminator.

However, California women voted for Mr Schwarzenegger rather than Democrat Cruz Bustamante by a margin of 42 to 37. Much of the credit has gone to his forceful wife Maria Shriver, who convinced wavering voters that if she could get over it, so could they.

However, nothing stuck to the actor, who railed against "special interests" such as unions but not against developers and corporations who gave millions to his campaign, which he once said he would fund himself. Like the other teflon man, Ronald Reagan, Mr Swarzenegger promised to lead by appointing able advisers, and he recruited Reagan veteran George Shultz and super-investor Warren Buffet to reassure doubters. The vote in the end reflected an intense desire to replace a bland machine politician with a charismatic, swaggering leader, so widespread that one in four registered Democrats voted to oust Mr Davis and replace him with a Republican, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll.

Members of traditional Democratic constituencies voted against the recall, but 47 per cent of Latinos voted to oust Mr Davis - who had pandered to them over driving licences for undocumented immigrants - and 30 per cent voted for Arnold. The lesson for California Republicans is that the "big tent" delivers results. Gov Gray Davis won re-election in November mainly because his opponents chose a weak, inexperienced conservative. But in the end Mr Schwarzenegger's victory is a huge setback for the California Democrats.

California usually gives its 55 electoral college votes, more than any other state, to a Democratic presidential candidate. The party will now have to spend more money here to maintain their advantage in 2004. That's the main reason why there is joy in the White House.