ANALYSIS:Despite discontent, it is unlikely any senior FF figure will step forward as an alternative leader, writes STEPHEN COLLINSPolitical Editor
TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen is unlikely to face an immediate threat to his position as a result of the call on him to quit issued by John McGuinness.
However, it became increasingly clear yesterday that the Kilkenny TD was articulating in public what many of his backbench colleagues have been muttering in the corridors of Leinster House with increasing urgency in recent months.
Even more worrying for the Taoiseach is the fact that the “usual suspects” who have been complaining about his leadership for some time have now been joined by TDs who have been totally loyal to him up to now.
While some of the discontent may be dismissed as sour grapes from disappointed ministerial hopefuls, the mood of disgruntlement has spread since the reshuffle even among those who had no hopes of preferment.
Even after McGuinness’s broadside yesterday, the Taoiseach, who had travelled to Brussels for an EU summit, expressed confidence that he had the overwhelming backing of his party – but the rumblings in the corridors of power were louder than at any stage since he became leader.
McGuinness urged alternative leaders to step forward and declare themselves. There appears to be little likelihood of that happening as the leading figures in the party will wait to see if the backbench revolt gains serious traction. In any case, the political truism that the rival who wields the knife usually destroys their own leadership prospects in the process is likely to deter senior Ministers from moving against their leader. Another deterrent is the fact that the party looks doomed to lose the next election, so leading it into that battle is not an enticing prospect.
Everything will depend on whether a significant group of backbenchers will break cover to launch a public challenge to the Taoiseach.
An open backbench revolt has not happened in Fianna Fáil for almost 20 years and it goes against the party’s tradition of loyalty as the most important political value. On the other hand, after the reshuffle backbenchers have nothing to lose except their seats and some of them may decide that it may be safer to revolt than to remain loyal.
Cowen can only be formally removed through a motion of no confidence. The last time that happened was in 1991, when the so-called gang of four – Noel Dempsey, Sean Power, MJ Nolan and Liam Fitzgerald – put down a motion of no confidence in Charles Haughey. The motion was backed by Albert Reynolds and a number of senior figures who supported him but, in the event, Haughey easily survived the motion. A decade earlier, Haughey survived a motion of no confidence put down by just one TD, Charlie McCreevy.
After the 1991 heave, the rules were changed to ensure that one TD could not plunge the party into a political crisis. A new rule specified that 25 per cent of TDs would have to sign a motion of no confidence before it could be debated by the parliamentary party.
In current circumstances that would require 18 TDs out of the 72 in the parliamentary party to sign. While there are probably at least 18 unhappy TDs, few people in the parliamentary party believe that there will be a heave. But the fact that it is even being talked about has encouraged the Opposition to hope the Coalition is becoming even more unstable and could collapse at any time.
McGuinness made it clear yesterday that his continued support for the Government cannot be relied on. That could be the most dangerous outcome of all for the Coalition. If a small number of disillusioned Fianna Fáil TDs were to withdraw their support the Coalition will fall, no matter how loyal the Greens remain.