Cahill and Paisley add edge to contest

The Rev Ian Paisley's home constituency would probably have attracted relatively little attention of if wasn't for Sinn Fein'…

The Rev Ian Paisley's home constituency would probably have attracted relatively little attention of if wasn't for Sinn Fein's decision to put forward a candidate, former IRA leader 78-year-old Joe Cahill. The symbolism of the contest between the two will hardly be lost on the electorate.

Mr Ian Paisley Jnr says the presence of Mr Cahill in the field will boost the DUP vote. "Instead of being apathetic about it, they will come out to poke this guy in the eye. It will only strengthen the unionist vote in the area."

Sinn Fein is running two candidates, but with only 6 per cent of the vote, the party cannot expect to win a seat. Mr Gerry Adams says the fact that "someone of Joe Cahill's record" is prepared to run shows there is no reluctance among republicans to get involved in elections.

Given that the DUP got 37 per cent of the vote in the 1996 Forum elections and 46 per cent in last year's Westminster elections, the party should take three seats. The Ulster Unionists are trailing with an average of 24-25 per cent of the vote, but this should get them two seats. The SDLP, with 16 per cent, will have no difficulty winning one seat. It is likely to go to Mr Sean Farren.

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However, new factors may influence the results this time. The turnout at the referendum was 59,000 - 13,000 more than at the Westminster election. If this is repeated, the impact on the result could be significant.

The Ulster Unionist Party also has its problems. Mr William Wright, a Ballymena councillor who is still officially a member of the UUP, is running as a United Unionist candidate. He will take some votes from the UUP in Ballymena, but his vote would be far short of a quota. He believes his transfers will go to the DUP.

Mr Paisley Jnr is confident the DUP will take three seats, saying that the No vote in the constituency at the referendum was in the region of 60 per cent, and that this will carry through to the election.

However the DUP cannot be complacent, as its vote has slipped in recent years. This is most evident at local government level as the party has now just eight members on Ballymena Council, compared to 11 Ulster Unionists.

The Rev Robert Coulter of the UUP is hopeful the party will do "particularly well". "The trend has been downwards for the DUP over recent years and there is no reason to believe that shouldn't continue. The only thing that keeps them going is the personal vote of Paisley."

He is hopeful the big turnout of the referendum will be repeated and expects to get transfers from all pro-agreement parties.

Alliance generally gets about 6 per cent of the vote, and its transfers could prove useful to the UUP if there is a close contest for the final seat. Neither the UDP nor the PUP is expected to poll well.

One of the big surprises in North Antrim is the fact that Ms Patricia Campbell, one of just two Catholic UUP candidates, made it through the selection procedure ahead of the mayor of Ballymena, Mr James Currie. Ms Campbell, the daughter of an RUC man, has spent the past two years working in the London office of the UUP and helped to run the party's referendum campaign.

North Antrim Candidates:

Patricia Campbell (UUP), the Rev Robert Coulter (UUP), James Leslie (UUP), Gardiner Kane (DUP), Rev Ian Paisley (DUP), Ian Paisley jnr (DUP), Sean Farren (SDLP), Malachy McCamphill (SDLP), Joe Cahill (Sinn Fein), James McCarry (Sinn Fein), Jayne Dunlop (Alliance), Oliver McMullan (Ind Nat), Richard Rodgers (PUP), Maurice McAllister (UDP), William Wright (United Unionist), John Wright (NLP), Chris McCaughan (Ind), Thomas Palmer (Ind). Westminster Election: DUP 46.54%, UUP 23.65%, SDLP 15.88%, Sinn Fein 6.27%, Alliance 6.16%, Women's Coalition 1.26%, Natural Law Party 0.25%.