Buckle of the Bible belt to put squeeze on Paisley

Constituency profile: United Kingdom Unionist Party candidate Lyle Cubitt expects to have recently resigned DUP councillor David…

Constituency profile:United Kingdom Unionist Party candidate Lyle Cubitt expects to have recently resigned DUP councillor David Tweed out on the canvass with him today in North Antrim.

Mr Tweed couldn't be contacted yesterday to confirm but the 61-year-old ("feeling 40") retired solicitor said the former rugby player would be tramping the streets with him looking for "number ones for Cubitt" - which can be translated as unionist votes against local MP and DUP leader Ian Paisley.

Mr Tweed reputedly said after he won his first Irish cap in the mid-1990s that he "played 30 times for my country and once for Ireland". In this case "my country" is Ulster, or the Northern Ireland element of it, which doesn't accord with the Ulster Rugby Football Union's geographical perspective.

But you get the point. This is Ballymena, the buckle of the Bible belt of Northern Ireland, where for a generation and more, Dr Paisley has reigned supreme preaching an uncompromising political gospel. Now former disciples are asking questions.

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There are posters up in the town showing the North's prospective first and deputy first ministers, Dr Paisley and Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness together under the headline, "Unholy Alliance".

"Had nothing to do with me," says Mr Cubitt.

Ten of the DUP's 15 councillors on Ballymena council, including Mr Tweed, are refusing to canvass for Dr Paisley because they fear he will perform a "U-turn, a sell-out" and enter government with Sinn Féin.

"Would you expect Tony Blair to go into government with the Muslim terrorists who are bombing London?" asks Mr Cubitt. "You can't have terrorists in government."

However neither Mr Tweed's resignation nor the stance of the disaffected councillors will do any damage, says Dr Paisley. "It will have no effect at all," he predicts.

He's taken flak from UKUP leader Robert McCartney, so he fires some back by wondering will Mr McCartney, standing in six constituencies, hold his "real" seat in North Down.

A couple of years ago, Dr Paisley was a shadow of his former self. Most of that lost weight is returned and he is back looking for votes. "Porridge in the morning and apple cider vinegar every night with honey" is his secret health remedy, he says.

The Ulster Unionist Party is running two candidates in North Antrim, outgoing MLA the Rev Robert Coulter and Robert Swann. Mr Coulter has been on the flat of his back for the past week with the flu, relying on canvassers to keep selling the UUP message. "I hope to be back to make a victory speech," he says, very hoarsely, from his sick bed to The Irish Times.

He predicts that both in North Antrim and elsewhere, the UUP will receive a "belated payback" for the risks David Trimble made to cement the peace. "People are beginning to see the wisdom of what we were trying to achieve."

Both he and Declan O'Loan, who is running with Orla Black for the SDLP, enter the caveat that the politicians must overcome the apathy factor to ensure the so- called centre-ground unionist and nationalist parties hold their own.

Daithí McKay is running for Sinn Féin in place of retired MLA Philip McGuigan. He says the response on the doorsteps is positive and is confident he will consolidate that historic first seat for Sinn Féin won in 2003.

North Antrim

OUTGOING MEMBERS (6 seats)

( Quota = 15%)

*Ian Paisley (DUP) 19.8%
*Ian Paisley Jr (DUP) 17.9%
*Robert Coulter (UUP) 14.5%
Philip McGuigan (SF) 14.0%
*Seán Farren (SDLP) 8.3%
Mervyn Storey (DUP) 8.2%

* Also elected in 1998.

UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND:The DUP is trying to manage its vote here in the outside chance that it might win a fourth seat. With anti-deal, anti-SF unionists Lyle Cubitt and James Gregg aiming to eat into the DUP vote, that appears ambitious. Still, even allowing for DUP internal disaffection Dr Paisley and the DUP would appear to be worth three seats here, with Ulster Unionist Rev Robert Coulter the frontrunner to hold a seat for the UUP.

NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND:Declan O'Loan and Orla Black are standing for the SDLP. O'Loan's name and Ballymena base makes him the likeliest of the SDLP candidates to come through. Dáithí McKay is a first-time SF runner but that shouldn't undermine his chance of holding the seat, notwithstanding that former INLA leader Dominic McGlinchey's brother Paul is running on an anti-deal, anti-policing ticket.

WILDCARD:UKUP's Lyle Cubitt. If the two-thirds of DUP Ballymena councillors who have turned against Dr Paisley, because they fear he will enter government with SF, reflect unionist views, then he could win. But the Paisley brand should prevail.

PREDICTION: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1.