POLAND: Poland's EU accession hopes were dealt a blow at the weekend following the collapse of the country's coalition government after just 16 months in power.
The prime minister, Mr Leszek Miller, dismissed two cabinet ministers from the Peasant Party (PSL), his coalition partners, after a disagreement on new taxes.
Now he faces the challenge of finding a new coalition partner or leading a minority government with just three months to the crucial vote on EU accession.
In a national broadcast yesterday, Mr Miller said: "The Democratic Left Alliance will always choose growth, jobs, \ membership. This is how we understand the Polish national interest. For those priorities we will look for support in parliament and society."
Poland's opposition parties plan to push for a no-confidence vote against the government today but they face a constitutional barrier. For a no-confidence motion to succeed, they must present an alternative administration, something Poland's fragmented opposition parties are unlikely to manage.
Fresh elections, if they do come, could have fatal consequences for Poland's EU accession referendum in June. The popularity of Mr Miller's ex-communist SLD party has dropped dramatically, while unemployment has risen to a post-communism high of 19 per cent.
Conservative parties such as the League of Polish Families and Self-Defence (Sambroona) could make strong gains in an election, capitalising on the pessimistic mood with their fiery anti-Europe rhetoric.
Even without elections, the opposition could use the political instability to their advantage, blocking new laws and poisoning further the popularity of the government ahead of the referendum.
The collapse of the government came about after the PSL, one of two junior coalition parties, voted against a government plan to introduce a new tax disc to raise the part-financing required for EU road-building projects.
The tax plan was voted down in parliament as a result of the PSL's revolt - and it proved to be the straw that broke the camel's back for Mr Miller after months of political wrangling with his coalition partners.
He demanded the resignation of the two PSL ministers, saying that he "would not be held hostage by anyone".
"In refusing their support for the government programme, the PSL has excluded itself from the government coalition," said Mr Miller. "You can't be in the government and the opposition at the same time."
The SLD still has the support of its other coalition partner, the Labour Union. But to retain a parliamentary majority he must find a party to replace the PSL's 42 votes in parliament or battle on as a minority administration.
That could prove a huge distraction for the government as it tries to steer the country towards a Yes vote in June's referendum.
Poland is the largest of the 10 countries expected to join the EU in May 2004. About two-thirds of Poles are likely to vote in favour of EU accession but growing apathy and scepticism about the EU could result in voter turnout dropping below 50 per cent on polling day, rendering the referendum invalid.