Bertie enjoys Rome trip after a bad trip in the Dail

`And there in the crowd is the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern," intoned the RTE woman in a hushed, almost reverential, tone

`And there in the crowd is the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern," intoned the RTE woman in a hushed, almost reverential, tone. "What a lovely day to be out" . . . and Drapier was about to complete the sentence by saying "out of the country", but the woman said "out in the open air".

Bertie was in Rome at the elevation of Dr Desmond Connell, and a welcome change it made from the hectic and at times pummelling experience he endured on Tuesday's Order of Business and would have experienced again had he been present on Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday was one of Bertie's worst Dail days since becoming Taoiseach. And most of the damage was self-inflicted. Drapier put this question to an experienced Bertie-watcher: why can he not be straightforward? Why does he constantly vindicate Charlie Haughey's description of him as the "most devious" of them all?

"It's his nature," was the answer. "He hates taking difficult decisions and reckons that if he sits on them long enough they go away. And in fact 90 per cent of them do."

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The Ned O'Keeffe decision was the one that didn't. Bertie tied himself up in knots all weekend. There was sympathy for Ned over the extent of the spinning and briefing coming from the Taoiseach's Department. The press was told over and over again that if Ned did not go he would be pushed - and all this at a time when Ned had agreed to go.

What was the point? Was it an attempt to portray Bertie in a tough-guy, decisive mode? If it was, it did not succeed. Indeed, there was general sympathy for Ned when he revealed that senior advisers in Bertie's office tried to bully him into resigning.

We politicians can be a prickly lot and while we respect and depend on officials, we take great exception to advisers getting above themselves and behaving in a way which should be the preserve of party leaders or elected politicians. And we don't like to see our colleagues subject to media manipulation at the hands of faceless apparatchiks.

Drapier has a view that Ned was hard done by and that the Public Offices Commission will find little against him. It's too late now and Ned was not his own best advocate in the controversy, but it has left an unsettled feeling on the back benches.

The only good thing to come from it all is the appointment of Mary Coughlan as Minister of State. Mary comes from a family with a great tradition of public service. She deserved her break and few will say otherwise.

The election of Michael Noonan and the shifting up a gear by Ruairi Quinn have certainly changed the atmosphere in here. It's much more unsettled than it was a few weeks ago. While Drapier does not believe the fundamentals have changed regarding an early general election, the atmosphere is different and in the new, highly charged situation accidents can, and usually do, happen.

Whether any such accident will be enough to bring the whole show down is open to question but, as Albert Reynolds says, it's the small ones that do for you.

The atmosphere now is more tense, aggressive and edgy than it has been for some time. Noonan has an air of menace about him on the Order of Business which clearly discomfits Ahern while Quinn is starting to find the type of form which has eluded him up to now.

The Order of Business is now going to be a major battleground, especially with the addition of the topical questions from each of the party leaders. It's too early to say how the new system will work but in Drapier's view the Opposition has been given a potentially lethal weapon to raise uncomfortable issues on a daily basis in the chamber.

The rivalry between Fine Gael and Labour is sharper now than it has been for some time. A good thing, Drapier feels, and the only real loser will be the Government as it will be the target of a sharpened and competitive opposition.

Quinn upped the ante this week with his return to the days of street politics when he and his colleagues picketed the Fianna Fail headquarters on the question of political funding. It was an action which deeply angered many in Fianna Fail and Drapier predicts retaliation will not be long in coming.

It was a pity some of the Labour members turned up at the wrong venue - the old Aras de Valera - rather than at the spanking new corporate building which now houses the Fianna Fail apparatus. However, the point was made that both opposition parties have put corporate funding top of their agenda and that Fianna Fail is looking increasingly flatfooted and defensive on the issue.

On the question of an early election, Drapier sees little reason to change his mind. The TG4 poll in North Tipperary was bad news for Fianna Fail. The earlier poll in South Tipperary was not cheerful either and the Mayo figures send dangerous signals.

Nor do the national polls, which did for John Bruton, provide a basis for the Government going to the country with confidence. On both the IMS and MRBI figures the only certainty is uncertainty, not a strong platform to launch a general election campaign. Drapier detects no pressure within the Government parties for an early election.

In fact, Drapier is now more certain that Bertie intends sticking to his target of no election before the spring of 2002.

Drapier has heard all the arguments, especially from some of the pundits who predict an election every other month. About things being worse a year from now, the US economy, danger of job losses in the multinationals, further fallout from the tribunals, inevitable ministerial cock-ups, lack of room to manoeuvre and many more.

All have some validity. But the only real question is would the Government be re-elected; would Fianna Fail do better in an early election? If the answer to those questions is "yes", then go to the country. If the answer is "no" or "not sure", then sit tight, especially since there is no danger of losing a Dail vote.

And Drapier can say quite emphatically, and for Bertie quite unambiguously, it's going to be "sit tight".

It's all but certain now we will be off to South Tipperary in mid-March, probably in time to coincide with Cheltenham. Brian Lenihan has taken on the task of Fianna Fail director of elections but to judge by the recent poll it's going to be hard to stop Tom Hayes this time. He will be the only major party candidate of last June's by-election where he performed well, so at this stage he is clear favourite. But after last June Drapier doubts if anyone will take the hospitable people of South Tipperary for granted.