CHINA's firing of missiles perilously close to Taiwanese ports has prompted deepening concern about open conflict in the Taiwan Strait, but defence analysts believe the dispute is more likely to continue to be marked by what one described as "degrees of sabre rattling".
But there is no question that China has raised the stakes dramatically in its argument with Taiwan and in the process risked further escalation of the conflict. It has also increased dangers of miscalculation leading to military conflagration.
China's leaders have also placed themselves in a corner from which retreat would be difficult without loss of face. "This is psychological warfare with very dangerous overtones," a senior military attache in Beijing said.
People's Daily, the Communist party newspaper, made it clear at the weekend that China was prepared to resort to almost any means, including military action, to halt Taiwan's slide towards independence. "We will do everything we can to safeguard the motherland's unity. We mean what we say," the paper said.
Mr Wei Yansheng, a Taiwan affairs specialist in China's Academy of Social Sciences, said he did not believe conflict was imminent because he assumed Taiwan's leadership "would not dare to go too far", but he wamed that US interference would vastly complicate the issue. "It's a family problem, like two brothers arguing with each other, or fighting between husband and wife let them go and sort it out by themselves."
Inevitably, war talk has focused attention on the military balance across the 135 miles of water that separate the island of Taiwan from China. But defence analysts believe it is misleading to calculate relative strengths and weaknesses based on firepower alone.
Most agree China would pay a terrible price if it sought to invade Taiwan. But they also note that virtually any further serious escalation, such as a blockade, would bring a heavy price internationally.
Estimates provided by a western embassy in Beijing show China would need 800,000 to a million soldiers to invade Taiwan, but its amphibious and sea lift capabilities would enable a maximum force of only about 50,000 to be involved in such an exercise.
"They don't have the amphibious landing capabilities for a force of more than 50,000, they are limited in their capability to sea lift in supplies and additional manpower, they don't have the ability to provide air cover and co ordination and they lack experience," a defence attache said.
He noted that the last time china sought to mount an operation beyond its borders it lost 35,000 men. Its invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was described by Chinese propaganda as a "counter attack in self defence", and resulted in China receiving a "bloody nose".
China's options in mounting a full scale naval blockade are also limited. Defence analysts doubt that Beijing could involve more than 50 warships in such an exercise and this would be insufficient. China is modernising its fleet with the addition of guided missile destroyers such as the Luhu built in its own shipyards and the acquisition of Kilo class submarines from Russia but its navy remains predominantly a coastal defence force.
China's ability to provide adequate air cover for its navy is limited, at best and Taiwan's air defences are regarded as one of its strong points.
China, by firing three of its M-9 intermediate range missiles into international waters off Taiwan's main ports last Friday, may have already played its trump card, military attache's say. "The M-9 is their best bit of infantry. It is accurate and reliable; they have shown that, but the question is what do they do next?" asked one. He also noted that stocks of M-9s, which cost £2-£3 million each, are "finite".
In its missile tests and use of live fire ammunition China has kept to international waters. If tests moved inside Taiwanese territorial waters, irrespective of Beijing's historical claims to Taiwan, these actions would be seen internationally as an act of war. Chinese mining of waters off Taiwan's ports would also be regarded as highly provocative, since it would affect ships of third countries.