ANALYSIS:Irish concerns about France after Sarkozy centre on the euro, writes MARY FITZGERALD, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
NOTHING DOMINATES official Ireland’s perspective on tomorrow’s French presidential election run-off as much the question of how the outcome may affect the forthcoming referendum on the fiscal compact treaty and the economic crisis more generally.
For weeks, Irish officials in Dublin and Paris have been observing the ebb and flow of the election campaign, parsing Socialist candidate François Hollande’s rhetoric for clues as to how the ripples from a Hollande presidency may impact Ireland.
“The vast bulk of the [Franco-Irish bilateral relationship] has been around the euro dynamic and the economy – there’s very little preoccupying us other than that,” says one Government source.
If successful, as appears increasingly likely in the final hours of the campaign, Hollande is expected to seek changes to the EU treaty in the first weeks of his presidency, just as the Irish debate on its ratification is gaining momentum ahead of the May 31st referendum.
In March, he declared he would renegotiate the compact: “If tomorrow I’m president, I’ll say there are parts of this treaty we can accept, but we won’t accept sanctions that are against countries’ interests and, second, we’ll add growth, activity, big industrial projects, eurobonds to pull the economy ahead.”
He later told a German newspaper he would not endorse the treaty if it did not contain measures for promoting growth.
Asked recently about the intention of his Socialist colleague in France to make changes to the treaty if elected, Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Eamon Gilmore replied: “What he’s talking about is having a jobs and growth agenda for Europe, which is something that the Irish Government has already been talking about.”
He added that, on this issue, “We would very much be in the same place as François Hollande.”
Gilmore has rejected suggestions that Hollande’s demand for growth-boosting measures would be seized upon by those campaigning for a No vote in the referendum. Sinn Féin and other opponents of the fiscal compact argue Hollande’s approach is at odds with the Government’s position on the treaty.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny has said he shares the views of Hollande when it comes to the need for a growth agenda and investment in Europe.
“It’s something we have been hammering away at at European level for the past number of months,” Kenny noted.
The EU treaty aside, when it comes to Hollande the man, one Government source says he remains “a bit of a blank canvas”. There have been contacts between officials here and people close to the Socialist candidate, including his adviser and campaign manager, Pierre Moscovici, who has visited Ireland a number of times.
“The fact the jury is largely out on Hollande himself shows that this presidential election campaign has been more of a referendum on Sarkozy than anything else,” says the source. “That said, Hollande has proved to be a pragmatic centrist in terms of his campaign and knowing where his ground genuinely is. It will be interesting to see how that develops. We have found nothing other than a very straightforward approach in any contacts we have had with him or his campaign.”
When it comes to France’s role on the international stage more generally, Hollande has provided some hints as to how he may differ to Sarkozy, most notably his pledge to begin withdrawing French troops from Afghanistan earlier than the incumbent president had planned and well before the current Nato schedule.
“Hollande’s statements about Afghanistan would indicate that he would have a different foreign policy approach,” says one Irish source. “But we will have to wait and see what that actually translates into if he is elected.”