The fight to win the presidency of Japan appears to be boiling down to a two-horse race.
In a campaign where Japan's floundering economy is almost the only policy topic ever mentioned, the clear favourite among rank-and-file of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members is Mr Junichiro Koizumi, running on a platform of`Change the LDP, Change Japan'.
Leadership of the party effectively secures the presidency.
Mr Koizumi's rival, Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, is seeking a second term in office with the backing of the largest, 101-member faction in the LDP. But many party members fear he lacks the popularity to lead the party safely through key Upper House elections in July.
The two other contenders, Economics Minister Mr Taro Aso and conservative Mr Shizuka Kamei, are seen as having little chance.
If the contest is so close that it forces a run-off, then the votes of Mr Kamei and his 55-member faction could be decisive.
While Mr Kamei was expected to ally with Mr Hashimoto, in a surprise move, his group indicated late last night that hemight be willing to back Mr Koizumi if he pulls off a landslide victory in local primaries being held at the weekend.
The winner needs a majority of 487 votes -- 346 from LDP members of parliament and 141 from 47 prefectural chapters. If no one succeeds in the first ote, a run-off between the top two will be held.