Constituency profile: South Antrim: South Antrim is the constituency where the Janus-like face of Ulster Unionism in its pro- and anti-Belfast Agreement guises are once again apparent and where the Alliance leader, Mr David Ford, is fighting for his political life. Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor, reports.
The constituency takes up a large portion of extended north Belfast and country areas around towns like Antrim, Randalstown and Crumlin. South Antrim is mainly unionist, but based on the 2001 Westminster and local government elections the SDLP and Sinn Féin almost have two quotas.
Five years ago on the unionist side of the house two Yes Ulster Unionists - Mr Jim Wilson and Mr Duncan Shipley-Dalton - were returned with Mr Wilson Clyde of the DUP and another No unionist, Mr Norman Boyd, then of the UK Unionist Party, now of the Northern Ireland Unionist Party. Unionists should again take four seats, but the personnel elected and their political views on the Good Friday accord may be different.
We could have a 3:1 No and Yes split rather than 2:2 as heretofore.
The two main UUP contenders are Mr David Burnside, who is opposed to the agreement, and outgoing MLA, Mr Jim Wilson, a Trimble loyalist and agreement supporter.
While these candidates, who are diametrically opposed to each other within the same party, have little affection for each other, they have a very good chance of being elected.
Like an ad for one of those biological detergents, the DUP's strategy throughout the North is to eat up the minor anti-agreement candidates.
It hopes to return Mr Clyde and win a second seat through Mr Paul Girvan or Mr John Smyth. Mr Norman Boyd is the unionist the party intends swallowing.
Former IRA prisoner Mr Martin Meehan has been steadily improving his base in South Antrim but would seem unlikely to oust the outgoing SDLP MLA Mr Donovan McClelland.
He has a reasonable chance, however, of stealing the seat from Mr Ford, which would be very damaging for Alliance.
In the Westminster election Mr Ford only took 4.5 per cent of the vote.
It is conceded, however, that many Alliance supporters faced with a Catch 22 choice voted for Mr Burnside to prevent the Rev William McCrea of the DUP holding the seat.
Mr Ford requires the return of all of that lent vote, and possibly more, to ensure he comes home ahead of Mr Meehan. It will be a close contest.