All eyes on where the Taylor made seat will go

DUBLIN South West is a noteworthy constituency for at least two reasons: the average age of the electorate is the lowest in the State, and the voters in this constituency like to change their minds.

Fianna Fail used to take two seats but for the last few elections has only managed to secure one. Mary Harney topped the poll in 1987 but her vote was halved in 1989. And Fine Gael has not managed to secure a seat since 1987.

In short, it is an electorate that likes to keep the politicians on their toes. "It is a very volatile vote," admits Harney. "It is very much a personality vote."

This also makes it a constituency where the votes are spread far and wide with only Mervyn Taylor achieving a quota (with a surplus of more than 3,750 votes) on the first count in the last election. All others were left waiting - and waiting - for transfers to usher them into office.

The share out of the Taylor vote - given the highly popular TD's decision not to contest this election - and how his supporters transfer will be watched with particular interest.

Taylor's strong local popularity and surplus coupled with a surge in the Labour vote last time out easily brought home Eamon Walsh, who now inherits the party vote there. And while Walsh can feel confident, the party acknowledges its second seat is now gone. Local polls made it clear the Labour vote would not hold so Walsh is running without a party stable mate.

To which candidate will these voters now turn? Pat Rabbitte is expected to benefit with an improved showing on his 3,743 first preference votes in the last election. His strong performance as a Minister of State should also boost his fortunes, so he too is considered a safe seat.

Mary Harney is also considered safe, although there are risks in her decision to ask voters to give first preferences to PD running mate, Colm Tyndall, and second preference to her. This strategy is aimed at delivering a second seat for the party.

Despite the ritual Fianna Fail/ PD courtship dance in the run up to the election announcement, there is no vote transfer agreement. But Fianna Fail's Chris Flood is unlikely to need PD help.

He was only 513 votes short of a quota on the first count in 1992 and is expected to hold his vote and his seat. The question is will either of his party colleagues, Conor Lenihan and Colm McGrath, win sufficient support to grab the fifth seat?

Lenihan - son of the late Brian Lenihan - has the family back ground but is a newcomer to the area. McGrath has laboured hard in the constituency and in local government and might have felt his time had finally come but for the presence of Lenihan.

Then there is the Fine Gael challenge led by Senator Brian Hayes. The left leaning Dublin South West has not proved a happy hunting ground for the party in recent years but the party used to hold one seat.

While most pundits agree seats for Rabbitte, Harney, Walsh and Flood, Lenihan, Hayes and McGrath will fight it out for the fifth seat with Lenihan the likely victor.

The key doorstep issues are straightforward in Dublin South West - jobs and crime, particularly drugs related crime. Average unemployment runs at 30 per cent and locally as high at 70 per cent. Commercial developments such as The Square in Tallaght and The Mill in Clondalkin have helped but have been offset by industrial closures such as Packard.

Tallaght residents were among the first to take to the streets in response to the serious local drug problem. The upgrading of its local garda station to a divisional headquarters will, however, be a help to the Rainbow parties. Campaigners on the hustings will also hear dissatisfaction about the dangers posed by young car thieves.

Water charges as an issue will not have a major impact here because of the Government's late move to abolish charges. High unemployment means that many voters are on waivers for the charges in any case.

Other local issues include the general lack of amenities, the upgrade and phase two at the local RTC and the completion of bypass roads around Clondalkin village.