If the US Secretary of State, Ms Madeleine Albright, is a poker player she must know that the cards she holds as she begins her Gulf tour make a weak hand. She can count only on the ace of US firepower and bluff over her other cards to convince Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain to permit US bombers to use their airfields to mount raids against Iraq if and when Washington decides to strike.
While despatching its aircraft carrier, Invincible, to the Gulf, Britain has withheld its unconditional support for military action by insisting that this should take place only after the Security Council adopts a resolution declaring Iraq to be "in breach of its obligations" with respect to post-war disarmament. Britain has undertaken to table the "breach" resolution in the council, presumably this week or next.
Although France has specified that it fully supports the use of military leverage by the US to pressurise Iraq to comply with council demands, Paris has said it would not support the use of force unless it was unanimously approved by the council. This could not happen as long as Russia and China firmly oppose military action.
The Arab League Secretary General, Mr Ismet Abdel Magid, proclaimed the organisation's opposition to the use of force as have various member states, including Egypt, Syria and Jordan. In 1991 Arab League condemnation of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait enabled key Arab states to join the US-led military coalition against Iraq but today Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and even Kuwait may find it impossible to permit US use of bases on their territory to mount bomber raids against Iraq. This is because the Arabs dismiss the US contention that Iraq, largely disarmed and impoverished by sanctions, constitutes a "threat to its neighbours". Arabs consider Israel, armed with 200 to 300 nuclear devices, the real threat.
On Saturday the Prime Minister, Mr I.K. Gujral, drawing the mantle of Jawarhalal Nehru round his slender shoulders, said India "will not tolerate the use of military force against Iraq". This was the first time in many years that India has taken such a strong line on a foreign policy issue. Two populous non-aligned Muslim states, Malaysia and Iran, have also declared their opposition to any attack on Muslim Iraq. The Turkish Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Bulent Ecevet, representing a Muslim state closely allied to the US, not only voiced opposition to military strikes but also said Ankara would not permit the US to use the Incirlik airbase which served Washington well during the 1991 conflict.
Sweden, an opinion leader in Scandinavia, has declared itself opposed, while the World Council of Churches, grouping the Protestant and Orthodox churches, has told member churches to urge their governments to stand against military action. US Catholic bishops have asked communicants to use their influence with congressional leaders.
Those expert diplomatic poker players, the Gulf rulers, can be expected to call Ms Albright's bluff, expressing their "understanding" of her position, as Jordan's King Hussein did on Saturday, but refusing to co-operate.