A chilly climate in St Petersburg

ANALYSIS: The Paris-Berlin-Moscow alliance has been turned into an embarrassment, writes Denis Staunton.

ANALYSIS: The Paris-Berlin-Moscow alliance has been turned into an embarrassment, writes Denis Staunton.

When Jacques Chirac learned that the leaders of Germany and Russia were meeting today, he told Gerhard Schröder that he would like to come along, too.

The meeting looked like a good opportunity for the leaders of Europe's "axis of peace" to deepen their alliance and work out a common approach to Iraq's post-war future.

But when Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, greets Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder in St Petersburg today, he will be aware that both his guests would prefer to be somewhere else.

READ MORE

The sudden fall of Baghdad has transformed the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis from a vital, mutual support group into an embarrassment for France and Germany. As one French official put it yesterday, Mr Chirac's primary goal at the meeting is "to find a way out".

Mr Chirac's opposition to the war in Iraq has won him unprecedented popularity in France and made him a hero to anti-war activists throughout Europe.

But by yesterday morning erstwhile friends such as the centre-left daily Libération were warning that the French President risked isolation after the remarkable military success of the coalition forces.

The three men will have little difficulty agreeing on the urgent need for humanitarian assistance to Iraq and on the importance of a major role for the United Nations in the post-war reconstruction of the country. But it is on the precise nature of this role that differences could emerge.

Ideally, all three would like the UN to oversee the establishment of new political institutions in Iraq, just as it did in Kosovo, Bosnia and East Timor. But they know that there is little hope of Washington agreeing to such an all-encompassing role for an organisation that the US views as having failed in the weeks preceding the war. German officials believe that the perceived revival of the alliance between Paris, Berlin and Moscow could make it more difficult to persuade the US to shift on the UN's role.

Mr Schröder knows his personal relationship with President Bush has been damaged irreparably by the crisis over Iraq. But the German Chancellor still enjoys a warm friendship with Mr Tony Blair and hopes that the British Prime Minister can act as a mediator with Washington.

Mr Schröder and Mr Blair will meet in Hanover next Tuesday, a day ahead of a meeting of EU leaders in Athens. A few days before the war in Iraq began, the two met in London and promised that, the conflict over, they would move to restore the relationship between Britain and Germany.

German officials are eager to escape the embrace of Paris and Moscow, although Mr Schröder values the renewed Franco-German relationship within the EU. Although he insisted yesterday that Germany would only participate in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq if it was under UN auspices, Mr Schröder is likely to show flexibility on the UN's role.

As for Mr Chirac, he will need all his political skills to avoid being sidelined. It is crucial for France that the UN, where it holds a permanent Security Council seat, should endorse any plan for the post-war political reconstruction of Iraq.

But as his allies slip quietly away, Mr Chirac may conclude that a compromise on the details of the UN's role is preferable to chilly isolation within Europe and the international community.