Buyers ignore flood and erosion threats to property values

Climate change will have a "profound" effect on Ireland according to a scientist who has been studying what global warming will mean here. It seems, however, that the consumer is unaware of the impact that changed weather might have on property values.

Global climate models "have become considerably more reliable" explained Dr John Sweeney, senior lecturer in the Department of Geography at NUI Maynooth. This has allowed the development of quite detailed predictions of what is expected to happen here as climate change accelerates.

"The impact of these changes are quite profound in the risk of flooding, river flow and dilution of effluents in river channels," he said. "The general prognosis for 2050 is that temperatures will rise by about 0.5 above the present average in winter and 1.5 above the current summer average."

Yet Dr Sweeney believes that changes in rainfall patterns will have a much more powerful influence in the coming decades. "That is where the major impact for Ireland will be, it won't be in temperature."

Current thinking suggests that summer rainfall will be down between five and 15 per cent, with particular problems arising in the north and east of the country. The situation will change in the winter months with increased rain, up by 10 to 20 per cent, in particular in the northwest.

These two patterns do not cancel one another out, unfortunately. There will be greater risk of soil moisture deficit early in the growing season and in mid-summer when crops are young and very susceptible to drought conditions.

The rainfall patterns will also cause problems for our water supplies. "Overwhelmingly Ireland has a reliance on surface sources compared with other European countries," Dr Sweeney said. Many low-volume water sources are susceptible to drought. Lower flow rates will mean that accidental discharges, agricultural runoff, industry and sewage-treatment discharges into water courses will have more of an impact.

"The main problem is probably going to be increased storage needs and urban extraction from rivers," he said. At risk areas include surface water supplies in the east and east-midlands including counties Dublin, Louth, Meath, Offaly and Kildare.

The situation could become acute, leading to a water-related limitation to continued development in these areas, he suggested. The low water flows during hot summers will also put river life, particularly fish, at greater risk.

Coastal regions will fare no better. A report by Irish Times columnist, Mr Brendan McWilliams prepared for the Department of the Environment some years ago identified the Shannon estuary as being at particular risk of rising sea level.

The Shannon and the Lee are both post-glacial submerged river valleys, Dr Sweeney said and the lowlands adjacent to them are easily flooded. Other areas at risk include Dundalk Bay, Wexford harbour and the Kenmare River.

Even a small change in this regard can have a major impact, he said. It is likely to come in a "step-wise" fashion on the foot of powerful storms rather than through slowly rising water levels.

Property investors seem blissfully ignorant of their peril however. The potential effect of climate change on property does not usually arise according to Mr Cormac Meehan of Sean Meehan & Co of Bundoran, Co Donegal. "To be honest it hasn't. It is not an issue at the moment." People looking for holiday properties might ask about the weather. "We tend to point out we haven't the extremes." He has regular contacts with the property market in Florida however where clients are aware of the climate change issue. Hurricanes are becoming more common there and as long as eight years ago consumers were alert to this. "They would have been talking about it in terms of global climate change," Mr Meehan said.

"Nobody has ever come into the office asking about climate change. I don't think they are aware of it," stated Ms Dolores Power of William Cleary Auctioneers, Wexford. "I don't think it has dawned on anyone it might be relevant for the future," she said.