A leading UK think-tank has warned that the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which was considered by the British House of Lords on Monday evening, will damage business, trade and politics in the North.
“Far from bringing stability to Northern Ireland,” the report finds, “the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill risks raising new dimensions of uncertainty for Northern Ireland’s governance, economic status and trading relations.”
It also says that the damage to relations with the EU which would be caused by the bill’s passage would damage inward investment to the UK.
The report, compiled by the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank, says that the Bill is “an extraordinary piece of legislation for several reasons”. However, it also says that given the opposition in the House of Lords, the bill could be the subject of “an extended ping-pong between the Commons and the Lords”, on in which the bill is amended by the upper House and sent back to the Commons where the amendments are struck out.
It is sceptical about many of the British government’s suggested solutions and says that the proposed “red channel-green channel” approach, where only goods that were intended to pass through Northern Ireland and into the Republic would be subject to checks at Northern Irish ports, could only be accepted if there was some sort of checking regime.
“What is clear is that there will need to be at least occasional checks on goods in both red and green channels,” it says.
The report also says that the EU has considered its responses to the passing of the bill “in detail”. The option to suspend parts or all of the exit deal with the UK will raise the prospect of tariffs and controls on trade between the UK and the EU once notice periods elapse.
While noting that both sides say they want a negotiated solution, the report also concludes that the “two sides are a long way apart” and suggests that an independent international chairman could be brought in to assist in talks between the two sides.
Without agreement, the report says, Northern Ireland businesses will be placed in an extremely difficult position. “A major change in rules would place traders in the position of either failing to comply with UK law or failing to comply with international laws.”
Concession
Elsewhere in Westminster, Boris Johnson’s former Brexit negotiator David Frost warned prime minister Liz Truss not to back down on her objections to having the European Court of Justice (ECJ) adjudicate on disputes about the operation of the protocol in Northern Ireland.
The Sun had reported that Ms Truss was prepared to let the ECJ have role in overseeing the protocol “to break the deadlock” — which would be seen as a considerable concession by the UK and a sign, perhaps, that it is serious about wanting to secure a deal on the protocol.
On Tuesday evening Mr Frost told the House of Lords European relations committee: “The ECJ cannot have a jurisdictional or arbitrational role in the future,” adding that “I think it would be better if that was acknowledged sooner rather than later.”
Acknowledging that the ECJ had jurisdiction in many free trade agreements, he said that the politics in Northern Ireland was “too fragile” for such an arrangement.
But Peter Mandelson, who was also giving evidence to the committee said that the reason politics in Northern Ireland is fragile is because Boris Johnson signed the protocol agreement “in bad faith”.
