Strength of economy helps the Government sail through trouble

Fieldwork for today's poll was conducted on Monday, April 17th, and Tuesday, April 18th.

Given the background to the survey, a downturn in support for the Government might have been expected. The daily revelations from the Flood tribunal continued, as did rumblings of industrial unrest from within the public sector; day-to-day conversation is dominated by such issues as rising house prices and traffic congestion, while on the Tuesday of the poll, the Central Statistics Office had just announced the highest level of inflation in 10 years, reaching an annual rate of 4.6 per cent. On the other hand, the economy continues to boom; consumer spending is at an all-time high; unemployment at an all-time low, with the tangible benefits of December's tax cuts beginning to appear in wage packets.

On balance, it appears the positives outweigh the negatives in the collective mind of the electorate, with support for the Government, the Government parties, the Taoiseach and Tanaiste all registering improvements in performance since the last MRBI poll in January.

Thus, satisfaction with the Government has risen from 55 per cent in January to 60 per cent in April, an increase of 14 points since last November and the highest level of Government support since October 1998.

In line with these findings, there has been a marginal increase in support for Fianna Fail (up two points since the last poll, with the party's ratings improving steadily over the last 12 months), while the PDs' support remains constant at 4 per cent.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael, as the main opposition party, has dropped four points since January with support for the Government among Fine Gael supporters rising from 40 per cent three months ago to 54 per cent today. The Labour Party, while still vying for second place in Dublin along with Fine Gael has, at 10 per cent, some ground to make up if it is to match its opinion poll rating of 15 per cent last May. Support for the Green Party, Sinn Fein and others remains relatively stable.

Much has been written of falling turnouts at elections and, in particular, of the apparent alienation of younger voters from the political process. Indeed, our last two polls indicate that almost three in 10 of all 18/24-year-olds fall into the "undecided" voter category, with a sizeable proportion of these stating that they do not intend to vote at all.

It is likely that the wooing of this youth vote will prove crucial at the next general election, and it is therefore interesting to note that Fianna Fail is the only party to have increased its share of this section of the electorate, to a point where support for the party now stands at more than 60 per cent of all 18/24-year-olds.

One of the more interesting patterns of recent years has been the degree to which Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach has maintained his high personal ratings, even as support for the Government has dipped.

Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating has dropped below 60 per cent only once since he was elected Taoiseach - in May of last year - when survey respondents were particularly critical of the Government's handling of the Sheedy affair.

Since then, his ratings have hovered in or around the mid to high 60s, with today's rating of 69 per cent reflecting an increase in satisfaction for the Taoiseach among supporters of Fine Gael, Labour and the PDs. Barring a major upset, his position as leader of Fianna Fail remains unassailable, with 92 per cent of party supporters happy with his performance.

In line with the Government and party figures, Mary Harney's rating has increased three points since January, Ruairi Quinn, at 50 per cent, is on a par with the last two polls, with John Bruton down from 45 to 42 per cent.

In summary, it should be noted that, by all accounts, this survey was conducted at least 12 months before the next general election is due and, as such, the figures cannot be taken as indicative of the outcome of the next election.

For the Government, there are a number of clouds on the horizon, not the least of these being its handling of public sector pay demands and last Wednesday's naming of names at the Flood tribunal. The next six months are likely to be crucial in the forming of public opinion.

Finally, in November 1999 MRBI applied a formula to its party support figures, designed to counteract recent overstatement of Fianna Fail support in opinion polls, and the increasing downturn in levels of turnout at election time.

Based on this formula, MRBI's estimate as to the likely standing of the parties is in the order of: Fianna Fail, 45 per cent; Fine Gael, 24 per cent; Labour, 12 per cent; PDs, 4 per cent; Green Party, 5 per cent; Sinn Fein, 4 per cent; Others, 6 per cent.

Ian McShane is managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland Ltd

This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd among a national quota sample of 1,000 representative of the 2.5 million electors aged from 18 upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic. Personal, in-home interviewing took place on Monday and Tuesday, April 17th and 18th, 2000, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent. In all respects the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland, and by Esomar (European Society).

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to The Irish Times and MRBI Ltd.