Referendums on EU treaties seem to bring out the amateur Nostradamus in many otherwise sensible politicians and commentators. During the Dail debate on the Treaty of Maastricht in May 1992, for example, the Green Party TD, Roger Garland, forecast sternly: "If the treaty is ratified we will have increased unemployment, poverty and emigration."

When Old Moore retires from his position at the Almanac, I would respectfully suggest that Mr Garland refrain from forwarding his CV.

As we all know, EU treaties are not glamorous affairs. The Treaties of Maastricht and Amsterdam were negotiated during my watch at the Department of Foreign Affairs. When 15 governments, 15 legitimate national interests, 15 visions of EU endgame, several languages and several political traditions meet to plan a single EU, the results will be very complex.

Because of this, we rely more heavily upon experts and commentators for our views on these treaties. Similarly, we are more open to misinformation and scare tactics.

Since the vote on EEC membership in 1973, certain groups have voiced the same groundless nightmare vision of Ireland within a closer Europe. This is a vision of Ireland without self-determination, impoverished and subject to domination by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

In 1973, when we voted on EEC entry, in 1986 on the Single European Act, in 1992 on Maastricht and in 1998 on Amsterdam respectively, this vision proved groundless. Nevertheless, the same old phrases, threats and arguments will be dusted off for this summer's referendum on the Treaty of Nice.

First things first. Nice will not take away our self-determination. Nice will not impoverish us. Nice will not affect our neutrality. It simply makes the institutional changes necessary for a larger EU of 27 member-states. At the same time, it ensures that the essential safeguards for smaller countries, such as Ireland, remain in place.

The institutions of the EU, the Commission, Parliament and Council of Ministers, were designed back in the 1950s for six member-states. To work effectively for 27, institutional change was obviously necessary.

In a 27-member EU, for example, today's system of apportioning two EU commissioners to the large countries and one to smaller countries, such as Ireland, would result in a huge surplus of commissioners. The solution arrived at in Nice was that all countries would have one commissioner on equal rotation basis. Similar types of reforms have been made across the institutions in the interests of reform.

In the European Parliament, Ireland will have 12 MEPs instead of 15. Again, the logic behind the reduction is simple. To retain the same number of MEPs per vote throughout the 27-member EU would lead to a large, ineffective Parliament. We retain 1.6 per cent of MEPs to our 0.75 per cent of population in an enlarged EU.

Many of the arguments and counter arguments in the months ahead will focus on these institutional reform issues. If this is the case, most of the public will probably prefer to spend the period between now and the referendum having teeth pulled or boils lanced. In the interests of remaining awake then, let us hope that in the debate we focus as much on the vision behind Nice than on the institutional minutiae.

The vision is extraordinary. It is a vision which, in the wake of the second World War, was determined never to allow Europe retreat into conflict and the needless deaths of millions.

The Treaty of Nice is about an enlarged Europe, extending this vision to 12 more European states. In order to join, these countries have to ensure that their economies, human rights record and democratic institutions are compatible with membership.

The fall of communism released many of these applicant member-states from 50 years of dictatorship and occupation, in which human rights and democratic freedoms were massively denied.

Today, as our outstanding Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen, has mentioned, these new democracies are seeking to consolidate their newly won democratic freedoms and lay the basis for a new era of stability and prosperity for the continent as a whole through EU membership.

At the same time, an enlarged EU will be beneficial to Irish business. While Irish business currently has access to a single market of 370 million people in the EU, with enlargement that figure will rise to 550 million.

It will not end neutrality, it will not harm the economy, it will not end self-determination, it will underpin democracy in eastern Europe and continue to strengthen peace, understanding and prosperity for us all.