Latin democracies under great strain

It says a lot about democracy in Latin America today that the two main candidates in Venezuela's forthcoming presidential election are former soldiers who participated in a military coup. President Hugo Chavez, once a rebellious lieutenant colonel, swept into office in 1998 and has transformed the political system, writing a new constitution which puts the rights of ordinary citizens ahead of corporate profit.

His opponent is Mr Francisco Arias Cardenas, a fellow 1992 coup conspirator, who claims that Mr Chavez has yielded to autocratic temptation and paved the way for a populist dictatorship. Mr Cardenas has found common cause with disgruntled elements in Mr Chavez's own centre-left coalition, along with business, media and church leaders, but still trails Mr Chavez by 17 per cent in recent polls.

Mr Chavez is putting his mandate to the test three years ahead of schedule.

This month he received an unexpected boost when Latinobarometro, an organisation which measures support for political shifts in the region, published results from its 1999 survey of Latin America.

The survey concluded that Latin Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with the quality of their democracies with the sole exception of Venezuela, where approval for the political system soared from 35 per cent to 55 per cent in the past year.

Mr Chavez has maintained remarkable levels of support during one of the worst years in the country's history, battling epic floods, a deepening economic crisis and allegations of corruption in his administration.

Voting was postponed from May 28th after the national electoral council acknowledged that it was unable to cope with the paperwork surrounding 35,000 candidates for 6,000 posts. "I don't think we have ever seen anything so complex as this election," commented Ms Jennifer McCoy, director of the Carter Centre's Latin American programme.

In sharp contrast, Peruvian electoral authorities rejected last-minute appeals for a postponement of their elections, as observers declared the vote-counting machinery "unreliable".

Peru is now on course for a major showdown as President Alberto Fujimori moves swiftly to consolidate his controversial electoral victory and his defeated rival, Mr Alejandro Toledo, plans a march by four million people in Lima, to physically prevent Mr Fujimori from taking power on July 28th.

An opposition candidate, Mr Toledo, pulled out of the presidential race before polling day, citing "enormous irregularities" in the electoral process, a view supported by the observer mission of the influential Organisation of American States (OAS).

Peru's voters are notoriously enthusiastic when it comes to voting, spurred on by a fine for abstentionism which adds up to a week's wages. Voter enthusiasm reached new levels this year, however, as votes exceeded voters by over one million.

The OAS observer mission recommended that regional action be taken against Mr Fujimori. But initial US rhetoric was quickly watered down and neighbouring states rushed to block any measures against Peru, fearing the same spotlight might turn on their own feeble democratic institutions.

Mr Toledo addressed 70,000 supporters on election night, May 28th, the largest political rally in the past decade. He invited retired general Francisco Morales Bermuda on stage and sent a message to the armed forces, urging them to "honour their uniform", a hint that a civic-military alliance may be an option in toppling the stubborn Mr Fujimori.

Last January indigenous people in Ecuador joined disaffected mid-ranking army officers to overthrow President Jamil Mahuad. The coup lasted only eight hours before Vice-President Gustavo Noboa stepped in, restoring constitutional rule by the merest thread. The indigenous peoples founded a "Parliament of the People", led by a Catholic bishop. Its 800 members were drawn from all sectors of society, pledging to rewrite the constitution with measures favourable to the poor.

Opinion polls suggest that Ecuador's indigenous leader, Mr Antonio Vargas, and the dissident army leader, Lieut Col Lucio Gutierrez, enjoy greater popular approval than President Noboa, who bowed to popular pressure this week and granted an amnesty to officers who backed the coup attempt.

Lieut Col Gutierrez remained defiant, saying he would do the same again, "as people will only tolerate so much abuse and poverty."

The Andean crisis spread last month to Bolivia, where President Hugo Banzer narrowly held on to his post after a planned 35 per cent increase in water charges caused mass public demonstrations and the suspension of civil liberties. Six unarmed protesters were shot dead by police.

President Banzer limps on in office, his stated goal being simply to batten down the hatches and hold out until his term ends in 2002. Mr Evo Morales, the highest-voted deputy in Bolivia, representing 60,000 coca farmers, told The Irish Times this week that he had been approached by a retired general interested in a joint civic-military insurrection.

The Bolivian crisis was caused by International Waters Ltd (IWL), a British company which owns Bolivia's privatised water system. The company demanded an increase in water rates to help recover the cost of a huge dam project, as yet unbuilt, which will pump water at six times the cost of alternative sources.

In the Latinobarometro poll 57 per cent of Latin Americans said that privatisation had not benefited their countries.