Hume may be losing faith in SF to deliver ceasefire

THE SDLP's election advertising punches home a stark message. It shows three pint glasses standing in a pool of red viscous liquid. The glasses are labelled respectively "Violence", "Intransigence" and "Sectarian-ism". The slogan alongside them reads, "We don't want another round."

It is clearly aimed at nationalists in the north who may be inclined to believe, as they did in last year's Forum election, that a vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for peace. That it comes from the SDLP underlines the signals which John Hume has been sending out during this election. The SDLP leader has warned that if his dialogue with Gerry Adams does not bring about an end to the violence, he will get on with the talks and negotiate a settlement without Sinn Fein.

John Hume is the main architect of the peace process, and of the nationalist consensus which made it possible. He has stuck with the Hume Adams initiative through the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire and all the escalating violence on both sides of the Irish Sea.

Many other politicians in Ireland and in the United States have remained committed to the ideal of inclusive negotiations because of their respect for the SDLP leader's record in pursuit of peace. Now it seems that Mr Hume may be losing confidence in the ability of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness to deliver a lasting and unequivocal ceasefire. If this is the ease, then we are moving into new and uncharted waters.

How the unionists respond to the SDLP leader's remarks, and whether they have even noticed the new directions that have been signalled, are questions that will have to wait until after polling day.

Sinn Fein, for its part, has dismissed John Hume's warning as electioneering, an attempt to rally moderate nationalist voters who have been angered by the British government's attitude to the peace process and may be tempted to vote for them. The party is in buoyant mood. Workers on the ground believe that Sinn Fein could take two, possibly even three, seats in next week's poll.

There is talk of opening an office in London - a sort of semi abstentionism that de Valera would surely have relished, going to Westminster but not entering the despised mother of parliaments.

AT the party's ardfheis in Monaghan last Sunday, Gerry Adams evoked the shimmering dream of peace and asked delegates to imagine "an Ireland in which the guns are silent. Permanently". The Sinn Fein leader believes that a strong vote for his party in the Northern election will greatly strengthen those, like himself, who want the Republican movement to pursue the political path.

But without the reality of a new and convincing ceasefire, these are empty words. Indeed, a strong electoral showing for Sinn Fein could have an extremely negative effect on political opinion in the Republic. Few people who know the North, and have observed the growing alienation of the nationalist community, would go as far as John Bruton in saying that a vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for the IRA. But many people would see such a vote as proof of a growing tolerance of violence by nationalists, and would be alarmed by the implications.

There is little sign that the Sinn Fein leadership locked into its own obsession with avoiding a split in the IRA, understands that patience is wearing thin, even among those who have been most committed to the peace process. Gerry Adams and his colleagues appear to believe that once there is a new Labour government at Westminster the path will be cleared for a new ceasefire and talks.

There is no admission, in public at least, of how badly political trust has been damaged by the breakdown of the IRA's ceasefire and the renewed campaign of violence. The disruption of British cities, the cancellation of the Grand National - these are brushed aside as minor incidents because no lives were lost.

So they may be, compared with the brutal realities of violence in the North, but each incident adds to the general sense of fear, tension and insecurity. They raise questions about the long term intentions of the IRA and whether Sinn Fein can ever be trusted to commit itself fully to democratic politics. Inevitably, an incident such as the brutal shooting of a policewoman in Derry heightens, fears that there are those within the IRA who have no intention of allowing the republican movement to make peace, ever.

ALL this affects the political climate. Even in recent weeks we have seen how politicians who have taken risks to put the peace process back on track have had their efforts thrown back in their faces.

Senator Edward Kennedy and Mo Mowlam are just two of those who have tried to make it possible for the IRA to call a new ceasefire, and who have been forced to pull back when their overtures were followed by violence.

All this could be transformed if the IRA were to announce a new and credible cessation of violence within days of the British general election. If, as the Sinn Fein leadership has indicated, this is going to happen at some stage, why not now rather than later?

Unfortunately, republican sources now believe that the whole tortuous process could take much longer. They cite the imminence of local elections, the fact that the new British administration will have to play itself in, the probability of a general election in this state and, of course, Drumcree as reasons to postpone the decision until the early autumn.

If there is further delay, it will be another opportunity wasted. An early ceasefire, timed to help a new Blair government, would be a demonstration of good faith that would enable Sinn Fein to win back some of the political ground that it has lost.

The alternative is bleak. A continuation of the violence, taken in conjunction with the tensions of the marching season, will lead to a further erosion of support for the idea that lies at the heart of the peace process negotiations involving all the parties including Sinn Fein and the loyalist fringe groups. Those who have worked for this objective on both sides of the Irish Sea and in the United States will be increasingly disheartened and may even turn away from the situation in Northern Ireland.

There will be increasing pressure on politicians such as John Hume to stand by what he has said and abandon his efforts to bring Sinn Fein in from the political wilderness and cut a deal with the unionists. This was the solution which successive governments pursued for 25 years without success. It was the fact that it was doomed to failure, because it excluded Sinn Fein and the people whom it represents, which inspired Mr Home to pursue an alternative which would include them.

We have to give those ideals more time. But Sinn Fein and the IRA should realise that patience is running out among many of those who have tried to help them and that it is high time that they gave something back to the peace process.