The prospect of saving from suspension all of the institutions established under the Belfast Agreement now rests on the slimmest hope that Sinn Fein will be able to convince the IRA over the next 36 hours to make a concrete commitment to Gen. de Chastelain on the decommissioning of arms.

Authoritative sources in the Irish and British governments hope that, by agreeing to defer the suspension deadline by two days, pressure can be put on the IRA to enable the chairman of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning to rewrite his report and offer the judgment that he believes the IRA will decommission by May 22nd. But, worryingly, there is no joint strategy by the two governments to bring about this outcome.

Some British sources believe Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness are shocked, indeed stunned, by the imminence of the decision to suspend the Executive, Assembly and all political institutions established by the Belfast Agreement.

Furthermore, this state of self-denial, or mis-judgment, may prompt them to try again to get a clear commitment of engagement in the decommissioning process from the IRA.

Irish sources, on the other hand, seemed to believe they would "get something" from the IRA up to the presentation of the de Chastelain report early yesterday morning. They are adamant, as indicated by the Taoiseach in the Dail yesterday, that if the institutions are not functioning, there will be no chance of securing decommissioning.

What has clearly emerged through all the press conferences and briefings, in Dublin, Belfast and London, is that the IRA words in Gen. de Chastelain's unpublished report are inadequate to surmount the crisis in the peace process. There is speculation that the IRA has told the general "the guns are silent".

But sources close to both governments agree that there is no mention of a start to decommissioning, less still a commitment to do it by May.

Faced with this scenario, both governments are embarked on different strategies to meet the requirements of the days ahead. Government sources confirmed having to press hard to secure a 48-hour deferment of the suspension of the institutions at yesterday's meeting with the Northern Secretary, Mr Mandelson, in Iveagh House, and said that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has not yet agreed that the suspension process can start in the House of Commons tomorrow.

For their part, the British feel obliged to initiate the suspension of the institutions tomorrow, ahead of Mr Trimble's post-dated resignation, which comes into effect on Friday.

The British hold the firm view that suspension is a preferable course to the collapse of the institutions.

With suspension, sources argue, the positions of Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon as First Minister and Deputy First Minister will be frozen. They will not face the impossibility of being re-elected if the institutions return.

Government sources were trying to put a two-pronged strategy in place last night to circumvent the crisis over the coming 36 hours. It is planned to seek clarification from Sinn Fein on the IRA's engagement in the decommissioning process with the hope of securing a new form of words for Gen. de Chastelain.

The Government also intends to talk to all the pro-agreement parties, Sinn Fein, the SDLP, Mr Trimble and the British and American administrations to try to achieve another review of the agreement without suspending the institutions.

SOME clarification has emerged, meanwhile, about the two governments' expectations of Sinn Fein and the IRA for Gen. de Chastelain's report of January 31st. Authoritative sources say the IRA, or Mr Adams on its behalf, did not guarantee or promise that there would be actual decommissioning by the end of January.

The whole understanding, expectation or hope, however, was that the general would be in a position to prove there was a real commitment to decommissioning.

The Mitchell review in mid-November, which enabled Mr Trimble to agree to participate in the formation of the Executive in early December, and the accompanying and subsequent statements from Gen. de Chastelain were carefully choreographed as a dual decommissioning/devolution process.

In the first statement on November 15th, the decommissioning commission stated its belief that "the implementation of the agreement in all its aspects will create a new context in which the situation will be transformed".

It invited the appointment of interlocutors.

In its second statement on December 10th, after the setting up of the Executive, the commission reported that "the naming of the new representatives and the initial meetings we have held demonstrate some progress. We expect more to follow".

It is abundantly clear from yesterday's developments that sufficiently more progress, in the view of the general, did not follow even if, as the two governments believe, Mr Trimble could have been convinced to buy a clear decommissioning timetable instead of hard product.