THE Fine Gael directive came down from the top: there was to be no public comment on Mary Harney's vote-getting efforts in Cork during the week. And no hint of a return to the Fine Gael/Progressive Democrats preelection pacts of 1987 and 1989.
The general election was a long way away. Fine Gael was gradually putting on weight in the opinion polls. There would be no rushed, strategic decisions. It was a time to hold the head.
Taking a long, dispassionate look at the options was - until recently - a depressing exercise within Fine Gael. The party was indeed in Government. But the chances of it hanging on to power were regarded as infinitesimal. That changed with a Sunday Independent opinion poll during the summer.
Three weeks ago, Fianna Fail's uncertainty over the viability of a deal with the Progressive Democrats caused Bertie Ahern to go courting Labour Party voters. And John Bruton became convinced that the Government parties could win a second term. It would be a mould-breaking achievement: the first time that a coalition government was re-elected.
On the figures, it seemed to be a pipe-dream. Fianna Fail was in pole position. Given co-operation, it could form a government with either the Progressive Democrats or the Labour Party. Fine Gael was well back on the grid.
But the very fluidity of the situation promised further movement. And if Fine Gael could build on its 26 per cent showing in the polls, anything was possible. Even a second deal with the Labour Party and Democratic Left.
The Progressive Democrats appeared to exclude themselves from the equation when Mary Harney said, last Wednesday, that she would not enter government with either the Labour Party or Democratic Left. And while she had honeyed words for Fine Gael - with a view to attracting transfers - there was no chance the two parties could make up the numbers. A Fianna Fail/PD scenario beckoned.
Fine Gael had it all to do. And managing its exit from Government was of primary importance. It would have to happen in a good-humoured and civilised fashion. The bitter infighting which had accompanied the break-up between Fianna Fail and the Labour Party in 1994, or between Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats in 1992, could not be repeated.
Close co-operation in Government, followed by an amicable break-up, is the agenda the three Government parties are working to at the moment. But that could always change. There is, however, broad agreement on certain priorities and an acceptance that the election will be fought on economic issues.
Law and order, Northern Ireland, the BSE crisis and the Irish Presidency of the EU will all impact directly on the public's perception of the parties in Government. But the key to the election will lie in a tax reform programme, which is expected to form a vital element in a new national wage agreement.
Negotiations between unions, employers and the Government are due to open in the autumn and, if wage claims are to be controlled, tax concessions will play a central role.
A spokesman for Democratic Left said workers' take-home pay had increased substantially over the life of the last three pay deals, while it had fallen during the previous 10 years. Anyone looking at the figures for increased earnings and job creation would have to be convinced.
John Bruton has been a reluctant convert. But as the economy has powered ahead, with records being broken for exports, profits and job creation, Fine Gael has bowed the knee. It will favour tax concessions to underpin a new deal, provided money is left over to fund a law-and-order programme and to respond to the BSE crisis.
Last Wednesday, Dick Spring appealed to Labour's liberal/working-class supporters. Cutting services to fund tax reliefs for higher-income earners was not Labour's way, he said. And with a new wage deal firmly in mind, he saw tax changes favouring the lower-income sectors.
Every family in the PAYE net should be able to see "a tangible improvement in their standard of living" after the Budget, he said.
Proinsias De Rossa wants to cut the lowest income tax rate and widen the tax bands, as being the fairest and most conducive to job creation. But he is also looking for more money in social welfare.
With about nine months to the general election, Fine Gael is growing in confidence. And it feels that time is on the side of the Government parties. It's a view that is dismissed by Fianna Fail. "It's all over now," a senior Fianna Fail politician insisted during the week. The only question is whether we will need the Progressive Democrats to form a government. We, might get an overall majority.
