Exodus of Hutu refugees has solved some of the problems

THEY don't know it, but file estimated 700,000 Hutu refugees who moved to Rwanda's border yesterday have solved a lot of problems…

THEY don't know it, but file estimated 700,000 Hutu refugees who moved to Rwanda's border yesterday have solved a lot of problems for a lot of people.

For Rwanda, it means the destabilising force which has sat on its eastern border for two years has been severely weakened. The former Rwandan army and the murderous Interanhamwe militias, who carried out the 1994 genocide of up to a million Tutsis and moderate Hutus, have now fled their perch on the Rwandan border and are on the run somewhere in Zaire.

In 1994 they were among a million Hutu refugees who fled the country, fearing reprisals for the genocide. They controlled the refugee camps and benefited from the food, medical supplies and shelter provided by the international community. They used the camps as a base from which to reorganise with a view to ultimately reinvading Rwanda.

The civilian refugees were their "human shields", whose presence prevented them from being attacked. To attack the militias would be to attack the civilians. To feed the civilians the world had to feed the militias.

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Now the rebels who took control of a section of eastern Zaire over the past three weeks appear to have separated the bulk of the civilian refugees from the hard men. The refugees can be fed without feeding the militias. It is not known how many refugees are still with the militias, but with much of their civilian protection gone, the armed men are much more vulnerable to attack.

Most importantly for Rwanda, they have moved away from the border, driven north west by the rebel attacks.

For Zaire, a major destabilising force in the east of the country has been severely weakened, although the rebels are more than a substitute for that particular problem.

The western powers who devised the mandate for the planned UN force in the region also have a lot for which to be thankful.

The force was to be a strictly humanitarian one, with action to disarm the militias or to separate them from civilian refugees specific action it was difficult to see how aid could be provided to the refugees without re establishing, refugee camps with the militias in control.

The rebels knew this, as did the Rwandan government. Many refugees who arrived in Rwanda yesterday reported that Rwandan Patriotic Front soldiers file official Rwandan army - were among those who took control of Mugunga camp within the last two days. Rwanda has always denied that its soldiers were involved, but few believed this. Fearing that the UN force would have unwittingly helped re establish the camps, the rebels, with at least some Rwandan support, decided to deal with the problem before their opportunity was gone.

There is a question over what the UN force will do now. With 700,000 refugees arriving yesterday, there are hopes that more may come in the next few days. If most of the refugees are back in Rwanda by the time the force arrives, there will be little need for a military presence.

The most pressing need now is for transport for the massive amount of food needed to deal with the influx in the short term. Military planes, trucks and other equipment could be put to good use. A large team of human rights observers would play an important role in providing reassurance to those Hutus returning to their home villages to live among those whose families were massacred during the genocide.

For the refugees, there is the uncertainty surrounding what will happen to them next. The intention is to return them to their home communes, where it is unclear what reception they will receive. Any who participated in the genocide can expect to be pointed out by survivors and imprisoned. Those who did not must nevertheless wonder how their former neighbours will react to their return.