Crisis between secular army and pro-Islamic regime feared

THE stage was set for a possible showdown yesterday between the powerful and staunchly secular Turkish army and the pro-Islamic government of the Prime Minister, Mr Necmettin Erbakan.

Senior military officials and ministers remained in talks at the National Security Council meeting, chaired by President Suleyman Demirel, four hours after the session began at 3 p.m.

In advance of the meeting, the issue of political Islam versus secularism, hotly debated in Turkey in recent weeks, has threatened to divide the population. Tension had started building up during the holy month of Ramadan when Mr Erbakan, riding on the wave of increased religious fervour, announced he would lift the ban on head scarves in universities and in the civil service, and build a large mosque in the middle of Istanbul's Taksim Square.

These proposals, perceived by some as a first step towards the "Islamification" of Turkish society, drew strong criticism from the defenders of secularism. Fears were compounded a few days later by pictures in the media of a "Jerusalem night" organised by radicals under the patronage of the mayor of Sincan, a suburb of Ankara. The mayor is a member of Mr Erbakan's Islamic Welfare Party. Young actors dressed as Hamas militants pretended to throw stones at Israeli forces in front of portraits of Hezbollah leaders. The guest of honour at the show, the Iranian ambassador, Mr Mohammad Ali Bagheri - who was later pressured into leaving - Turkey called for Allah's punishment on those who sign deals with Israel, while the mayor contributed a speech that all but called for Islamic law to be introduced.

This proved to be more than the military could stand. A few days later a convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles, officially on its way to a "routine rural exercise" slowly paraded through the centre of Sincan. Summoned by the generals, the Interior Minister, Ms Meral Aksener, later announced she had suspended the mayor from his functions, while the state prosecutor issued a warrant for his arrest.

After addressing a meeting in the eastern town of Erzurum on Thursday, Iran's chief consul, Mr Saeede Zare, was ordered to leave Turkey within 48 hours.

The Kemalist institutions do not trust the Welfare Party and would like to see its government replaced. The generals have on repeated occasions warned that "secularism could not be tampered with". Some staunch Kemalists do not hide their hope for a military take-over, but diplomats in Ankara believe the generals are aware of the catastrophic consequences a military intervention would have for Turkey.

President Demirel, himself twice toppled by the military, gave extensive interviews to the Turkish press to stress his views, strongly warning Islamists but sending subtle messages to the military as well.

"If a government without Welfare is needed, the solution is in the parliament, not through force," he said. "We have seen the same things [coups] in 1960,

1971, 1980. We saw that the medicine did not cure anything."

Mr Erbakan and his coalition partner, Ms Tansu Ciller, pointing to the slight upturn in the economy and the beginning of a privatisation drive as signs of success, have both said the coalition would continue.

Ms Ciller reaped the rewards of her partnership with the Welfare Party last week when she was cleared, on three occasions, by the parliament, of corruption charges that had initially been brought against her by Mr Erbakan's party while it was still in the opposition.

Consumed by personal rivalries, the opposition parties have failed to produce the solid front that might have convinced some dissatisfied deputies in Ms Ciller's True Path Party to defect. Consequently the censure motion against the government, introduced by the two social-democratic parties was easily repelled.

Elections would also be unlikely to solve the current crisis. Diplomats say the military will continue to issue dire warnings clearly setting the limits to contain the more radical elements in the Welfare Party. Mr Erbakan has shown himself capable of compromise. To remain in power, he has had to sign a new agreement with Israel, give his approval for the expulsion from the military of officers perceived to have Islamist leanings and to all ow an elected mayor from his own party to be arrested.

Thousands of women recently poured into the streets to oppose Islamic law, and since February 1st numerous Turks have joined a popular campaign - "One minute of darkness for permanent light" to protest against corruption and the links between the state and the mafia. These were revealed in November when a police chief, a right-wing gangster on the run and a Kurdish deputy from the True Path Party were found together in a car that had crashed into a truck.

Dismissed by the government as "childish", the initiative, which is peaceful and independent of parties and ideologies, is gaining strength. Those who are turning off or flashing their lights, blowing horns or banging pots every evening at 9 p.m. are signalling their desire for a cleaner and more peaceful Turkey.