TWO thirds of Belfast Catholics believe there will be Catholic majority in Northern Ireland within 30 year and around half of Belfast Protestants believe it will happen within 2 years, according to a new study.

The study examines attitudes among 5,255 Catholic and Protestant churchgoers in Belfast. It was carried out for the Northern Ireland Office's Central Community Relations Unit by Prof Frederick Boal and Dr David Livingstone of Queen's University, and Dr Margaret Keane of St Mary's College.

The study found that churchgoing Protestants in Belfast were theologically conservative in general, but that the strongest traditional views were to be found among young people.

Thus 78 per cent of Protestant churchgoers under 24 thought the Bible was always right, compared to 50 per cent the over 65s. Some 82 per cent of 17 to 24 year olds believed in a "born again" experience as crucial to genuine Christianity, compared to 57 per cent of people over 65.

Similarly, the highest approval for women clergy was among the over 65s, while the lowest was in the 25-34 age group. Protestants under 25 were also more traditional in their attitudes to sexual morality than their middle aged counterparts.

This is in marked contrast to the survey's findings among Belfast Catholics. Here the highest level of rejection of the church's teachings was among 18 to 24 year olds, while obedience to those teachings increased steadily as the age groups got older.

Interestingly, nearly half (48 per cent) of all Belfast Catholic church goers considered individual conscience to be their most important guide in living a Christian life, compared to 45 per cent who put the scriptures and the Church's teachings first. The study found that whereas ecumenism and cross community interaction elicited greater support from Catholic than from Protestant churchgoers, when it came to actual participation in such endeavours there was little difference between the two groups; around half of each group had taken part in joint worship.

Only 18 per cent of Catholics had been involved in any kind of cross community organisation, with only 2 per cent involved in such an organisation associated with their church.

The great majority of both Catholics and Protestants were less than happy with the idea of choosing a marriage partner from the other religious group. Only 25 per cent of Catholics were willing to marry a Northern Irish Protestant, 2 per cent less than the proportion willing to take a black partner.

Only 14 per cent of Protestants were prepared to marry a Catholic. Apart from Church of Ireland attenders, Protestants were also more willing to accept inter racial than Protestant Catholic marriages. This was even more evident among the smaller, more conservative denominations like the Baptists, Pentecostalists and evangelical Presbyterians.

The study's findings on Protestant and Catholic political views are entirely unsurprising. Over 80 per cent of Protestants were convinced that "Northern Ireland should remain part of the United Kingdom", with the most common objection to Irish unity being "the power the Roman Catholic Church would have in a united Ireland".

On the other side, 96 per cent of Catholics considered that their identity lay in some form of Irishness. Some 72 per cent saw the long term future of Northern Ireland as being with the rest of Ireland, with two thirds saying they wanted unity "because they could express their Irish identity". A tiny 2 per cent thought of themselves as British, the same percentage of Protestants who considered themselves Irish.

The study, entitled Them and Us?, concludes that Belfast's Catholic churchgoers follow late 20th century trends in that they are more likely to be women, middle aged and elderly, with few people under 25. Younger, better educated Catholics are likely to take an individualistic stance on doctrinal and moral matters in spite of church teachings. Only 6 per cent of Catholic respondents were unemployed.

Protestant churchgoers are predominantly women, middle class and over 45. Comparison with a previous 1983 study indicated that these trends were increasing.

The study also highlighted the striking conservative liberal differences within and between Protestant denominations on such issues as women's ordination, religious observance, mixed schooling, abortion, divorce, cross community interaction, mixed marriage and sexual mores.