Cardinal Hume will be a difficult act to follow

The pessimists think we shall have to wait until at least the spring to learn who will succeed the late Cardinal Basil Hume.

The optimists still hope there will be a Catholic Archbishop of Westminster around to help Dr George Carey put a Christian gloss on the millennium celebrations.

But the pessimists are probably right, given that Rome has taken three years to appoint a new Bishop of Argyll and the Isles to succeed Roddy Wright, who decamped with a divorced mother of three and who, it was subsequently learned, had fathered a child some 16 years earlier. And surely if a pastoral situation demanded the appointment as soon as possible of a safe pair of hands, such as the Monsignor Ian Murray who has now been appointed, this was it.

Meanwhile, Cardinal Hume has no obvious successor.

The bookmakers William Hill are quoting odds on no fewer than a dozen possible candidates.

Top of their list is 61-year-old Archbishop Patrick Kelly of Liverpool at 5 to 4. But he has been in Liverpool only since May 1996, and Rome is hardly likely to want to cause the disruption that would follow uprooting him after barely four years.

Similarly, on the principle that lightning never strikes in the same place twice, we can probably rule out the present Abbot of Ampleforth, Dom Timothy Wright (2 to 1).

Again, appointing another religious could be construed as a vote of no confidence in the English diocesan clergy, which would rule out the Master General of the Dominicans, Father Timothy Radcliffe (7 to 1), and the Vatican's expert on Islam, Bishop Michael Fitzgerald (4 to 1).

A number of bishops' names have been mentioned as possible successors, and much will depend on whether Rome is thinking of appointing someone in his 50s, with the prospect of a 20-year term of office, or someone in his 60s who would serve for only 10 years or so before reaching the retiring age of 75: though this can be a flexible limit, witness Cardinal Cahal Daly who stayed on in Armagh until he was 79.

And if Rome is thinking of a shorter period of office there is an excellent candidate available in the person of 69-year-old Bishop David Konstant of Leeds (50 to 1), who enjoys the rare distinction of being co-author of a religious education textbook that was banned for use in schools of the Archdiocese of Dublin by the late John Charles McQuaid, but whose contribution to the Catechism of the Catholic Church was greatly appreciated in Rome.

In their 60s are Bishop Crispian Hollis of Portsmouth (33 to 1), a Church of England bishop's grandson (and son of that formidable writer and politician Christopher Hollis), and Bishop Cormac Murphy-O'Connor of Arundel and Brighton (20 to 1), a former rector of the English College in Rome and Catholic co-chairman of ARCIC: his appointment would indicate that Rome was actually taking dialogue with the Anglican Communion seriously.

Then there are bishops in their 50s. Bishop Peter Smith of East Anglia (25 to 1), a former rector of the seminary at Wonersh, has probably blotted his copy-book by defending Clare Richards when Rome obliged him to withdraw his imprimatur from a religious education textbook she had written. Bishop John Crowley of Middlesbrough (16 to 1) preached a moving homily at the cardinal's funeral and was formerly one of his auxiliary bishops.

Finally, Dr Vincent Nichols (6 to 1), Bishop in North London since 1992, is a former general secretary of the bishops' conference and a consummate diplomat who is highly regarded in Rome.

Two other bishops have also found their way into William Hill's book: 69-year-old Archbishop Michael Bowen of Southwark (33 to 1), and 62-year-old Bishop Christopher Budd of Plymouth.

In all this one factor could well be the steady trickle of letters to Rome from extreme right-wing Catholics denouncing what they regard as bishops' unorthodox views, particularly in the field of catechetics and religious education.

So far the English and Welsh episcopate represents what can be regarded as a middle-of-the-road Vatican II stance, and so far Rome has done nothing to upset this particular apple-cart; though at one stage it wanted to appoint an Opus Dei priest to a vacant see and was only thwarted by what was described as "obsequious diplomacy" on the part of Cardinal Hume and his fellow bishops.

But the opportunity for mischief is increased by the archiepiscopal vacancy Rome also has to fill in Birmingham, where Archbishop Maurice Couve de Murville has resigned.

And next year three diocesan bishops will reach the retiring age of 75 and presumably occasion fresh appointments: Bishop Mervyn Alexander of Clifton, Bishop Leo McCartie of Northampton, and Derry-born Bishop James McGuinness of Nottingham. In other words, there is going to be quite a turnover: five new faces among a body of 32 can make a significant difference.