Volatility may throw up investment opportunities

Investor/An insider's guide to the market: Reverberations caused by the sudden falls in securities prices in recent weeks continue to be felt across global financial markets. However, there were signs this week that the worst effects of the initial shock have passed.

Viewed in the context of historical market volatility, it was the sudden onset of price falls across a broad range of financial assets, from commodities and emerging markets securities to mainstream equity indices, rather than the magnitude of the declines, that was unusual.

The largest falls occurred in emerging markets such as India, where trading had to be suspended, and in commodities, where speculative fervour had pushed many prices into bubble territory. Falls in the mainstream equity indices were also quite sharp, with indices such as the FTSE 100 and FTSE Eurofirst 300 suffering monthly falls of the order of 10 per cent.

However, when these falls are viewed in the context of the strong equity-market gains of 2003, 2004 and 2005, they seem quite modest. Indeed, the sell-off has merely eroded the gains of the first four months of 2006.

Investor continues to be sanguine regarding the outlook for equity markets and on the contrary, views the current market shakeout as a healthy and badly-needed correction. The retreat in commodity prices is positive if sustained, and should provide some comfort to those central bankers who are concerned about inflation.

Throughout the surge in market volatility, bond prices actually rose and the euro/dollar exchange rate seems to have stabilised at around the 1.28 level.

Most of the fresh economic news that has emerged has been positive.

For those investors who take a medium to long-term view, corrections can often throw up some attractive investment opportunities, as generalised market sell-offs tend to be indiscriminate, with most share prices falling. The Iseq Overall index is now hovering around its end-December 2005 level.

Two of the biggest fallers over the past month were IFG and Iona Technologies, although both of these shares are well up over the year to date. Market heavyweight CRH rose strongly in the first four months of the year, but its shares have been particularly hard hit in the sell-off. With the share price now just above its 2006 low point, this could be a good time to invest.

In the food sector, Kerry Group and Fyffes have fallen very sharply, although stock-specific issues have been the culprit rather than the overall market trend.

Fyffes is finding the new EU banana regime even tougher than anticipated. One element of Fyffes's strategic response was to spin out its property interests into a separate company called Blackrock International Land. Unfortunately, this strategy seems to have backfired as the combined market value of Fyffes and Blackrock is well below Fyffes's value before the spin out.

Although profit margins in the fruit distribution business are set to remain under pressure, Fyffes has a strong balance sheet and it may therefore be able to take advantage of merger and acquisition opportunities. The shares could well be due a short-term bounce.

The fall in the Kerry share price is as a result of a profit warning issued by the company at its May 19th annual general meeting.

This was the first such warning in its 20-year history as a quoted company. Profits this year are expected to stagnate and to resume modest growth in 2007.

Kerry's inability to recoup cost increases, particularly energy, through higher prices for its customers is the reason for this profits downgrade. Among food companies Kerry is not unique, as most food manufacturing and ingredients companies are having difficulties in raising output prices to compensate for cost increases. In fact, the Kerry downgrade is quite modest in an international context.

Nevertheless, Investor sees little upside to the Kerry share price until firm evidence emerges that the group is managing to restore its profit margins.

Overall, for those investors committed to long-term investment in the equity market, a careful review of their portfolios could well reveal some opportunities to rebalance to take advantage of the recent volatility in the market.