THE GLOBAL forecast for personal computer shipments has been cut dramatically by Gartner, the research group, because of economic instability in western Europe and the US and a consumer shift to tablet devices such as the iPad.

Gartner lowered its growth guidance for the global PC market this year to 3.8 per cent from its earlier forecast of 9.3 per cent and warned that 2012 would also see a slower start to sales.

PC sales for 2011 are expected to be 352 million – nearly 54 million units fewer than it forecast in December 2010. It was the second time this year Gartner had cut its guidance.

“The expectation originally was that the economy would stabilise in the second half and consumers who hadn’t upgraded their PCs for some time would be attracted back to the market,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

“But that hasn’t happened and in fact PCs have been pushed even further down the buying criteria.”

Second-quarter PC sales were much lower than expected in the US and early indications are that back-to-school spending has been disappointing.

Many consumers are buying smartphones and tablet computers but keeping their desktop PCs or laptops for a few more years.

By contrast to slowing PC sales, Gartner forecast this year that global smartphone sales would grow 57.7 per cent to 468 million in 2011, while sales of tablets are expected to more than treble to nearly 70 million units.

“It is only towards the back end of 2012 that we could see a boost for the industry, if companies like Microsoft and Intel begin providing thin and light laptops at cheaper prices. But if that doesn’t happen, we will have to cut numbers again,” Mr Atwal said.

HP’s recent decision to spin off its PC business highlighted the difficulties the industry is facing.

In August, Taiwan’s Acer, the fourth-largest PC manufacturer by shipments, projected a loss for 2011, and Dell cut its revenue forecast for the year. - (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011)