A gauge of future US economic activity rose more than expected in August as the money supply increased due to support from the Federal Reserve, yet the reading suggest that the economy won't pick up any time soon, the Conference board said today.

The Leading Economic Index increased for the fourth straight month by 0.3 per cent to 116.2 in August after a 0.6 per cent rise in July.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise 0.1 per cent.

"There is a growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the firm.

He said the chance of a recession happening remains below 50-50, yet the odds have "certainly increased in recent months".

Reuters