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How does a global pandemic affect birthrates?

Ireland had no fall in births related to the first Covid-19 lockdown but 2021 brought a marked increase

Ireland now has the oldest first-time mothers in the EU, at an average age of 31. Photograph: iStock

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John FitzGerald
Fri May 10 2024 - 06:00

Fertility has been falling worldwide for decades. The world average number of births per woman is now about 2.3, but this is unevenly spread. African women on average have aboutfour children over their lifetimes, leading to rising populations. Elsewhere, most countries have two or fewer births per woman, setting their populations on a path to decline, unless there is substantial inward migration.

Across the developed world, the highest fertility rates are in the US and France. The EU average is about 1.5 births per woman, Ireland’s is slightly above this at 1.6, having fallen from about two in 2010. It’s lower still in the Far East – Japan at 1.3, China at 1.2 – and lowest in the world in Korea, with an average below one.

A slowly decreasing population is something that can be handled, though it will eventually lead to a much higher old-age dependency ratio. However, as we in Ireland saw in the half-century following the Famine, a rapidly falling population can cause a multitude of problems.

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So many countries would like to see higher fertility, moving closer to a rate that would stabilise the population in the long term.

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In Ireland over the last decades, we have seen a rise in women’s education levels, a higher share of women in work, a rising age of first births as women established their careers and a falling fertility rate

If women are having fewer children because they now have greater opportunities for a good career, that’s a positive development. However, if having fewer children is because it’s getting harder to be pregnant or to raise a family, that’s a problem for society. Housing shortages, childcare costs, lack of family-friendly working arrangements and curtailed career prospects are all obstacles to couples having the number of children they would otherwise want.

Politicians in most countries are rightly very wary of straying into this area of human behaviour. But even if they wanted to encourage more births, without understanding why people are choosing to have fewer children their policy changes may be ineffective at raising birth rates.

Countries like France and Sweden have a history of family-friendly policies. France has long offered generous child benefits, explicitly to encourage more births. A “famille nombreuse” with three or more children gets hefty discounts on public transport. Those with four or more children can even get a state medal. Sweden has long had excellent, inexpensive, childcare. It has generous maternity leave and, importantly, paternity leave to be taken while the mother is back at work. While such policies have succeeded in slowing the decline in fertility, this has proved temporary.

In Ireland over the last decades, we have seen a rise in women’s education levels, a higher share of women in work, a rising age of first births as women established their careers, and a falling fertility rate. Housing and childcare costs remain very high.

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We now have the oldest first-time mothers in the EU, at an average age of 31. Significant changes have been made to make Ireland more family-friendly, like longer maternity leave, better parental and paternity leave, childcare subsidies and improved child benefits, but they have not prevented the fall in births.

The widespread lockdowns following the onset of the Covid pandemic in early 2020 have impacted births worldwide in different ways. Some countries saw a fall in births in early 2021, nine months after lockdowns began. Pandemic restrictions that prevented pregnant women travelling to the US contributed to a fall in births there in 2020 itself.

Housing shortages, childcare costs, lack of family-friendly working arrangements and curtailed career prospects are all obstacles to couples having the number of children they would otherwise want

Ireland saw no reductions in births related to the timing of our first lockdown. Births in 2021, however, were significantly higher than would be otherwise expected. Models suggest we had 10 per cent, or about 5,500 more births, than if previous trends had continued. While some other countries also saw a spike in births in 2021, this didn’t happen in our nearest neighbours, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.

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In some countries, the boost in births in 2021 was followed by a drop in 2022, suggesting people had brought forward the planned timing of having a child. However, so far, in Ireland we haven’t seen any evidence of that timing effect, with births in 2022 and 2023 being no lower than expected.

The pandemic was an unwelcome interlude that caused many deaths, and was a jolt to our normal way of life. It was also like a laboratory test of how people react and behave in unusual circumstances. Younger people had few chances to meet one another, while those in established relationships had more time together at home. Based on the pandemic experience, there is an opportunity for anthropologists and sociologists to study how these and other factors affected couples’ decisions on having children.

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