Fundamentals to sustain strong market

BreakfastBriefing: A director of estate agent Hamilton Osborne King, Mark Reynolds, has forecast that the same factors that shaped the property boom over the past 10 years will continue to drive it over the next decade.

However, he said that developers needed to change their thinking in order to reap as much benefit from the market. "They need to think big, think long and think ahead of the market."

Reynolds told a HOK breakfast meeting for clients that the level of immigration and the current baby boom will be the fundamental drivers of property demand well into the 21st century.

Key opportunities in the next decade would rely on transport, now a key priority for house buyers; landbanking in the UK as 3.5 million homes needed to be built there by 2020; developing a Chinatown in Dublin; providing for the "grey" market and opportunities in central and eastern Europe.

Reynolds said that, because of the shortage of suitably sized retail units in Dublin city centre, he believed that Henry Street rents had the potential to surpass those on Grafton Street.

With the redevelopment of Arnotts and the Ilac centre, Henry Street would be able to provide the space necessary to accommodate new retailers.

Reynolds said that the stabilisation of land prices and housing prices was in the hands of the Government who had been "far too greedy" in their tax take.

He also said that the planning authorities needed to be more proactive in zoning and servicing the necessary lands.

An Bord Pleanála needed to be more consistent in its decisions, as in the last 12 months it reversed one-in-three decisions by local authorities.

Peter Straarup, chief executive officer of Danske Bank, which acquired National Irish Bank in 2005, said they fully expected the present economic buoyancy in Ireland to continue and the country was well positioned to react to any market adjustments.

One risk he identified was the comparative youth of the population: "One of the biggest risks in the Irish market is that the population is so relatively young. These young people have only experienced increases in values."