Figures show UK's retail market is resilient - when the price is right

"Liverpool One is rushing to the aid of shopaholics," boast the promoters of Merseyside's latest redevelopment, a 42-acre complex…

"Liverpool One is rushing to the aid of shopaholics," boast the promoters of Merseyside's latest redevelopment, a 42-acre complex of shops, cafés and greenery that will create more than 5,000 jobs after opening in May.

Piling on the hyperbole, the project's website tempts potential tenants with the prospect of five million hardened Liverpudlian shoppers, who, it claims, "stay longer and spend more", with, a great appetite for fashion.

Liverpool is far from alone in seeking to harness the UK's obsession with bargain-hunting to boost jobs and investment in the local economy. Helped by rapid growth in household spending, retail developments such as Liverpool One have been some of the chief drivers of urban regeneration over the past decade, helping cities such as Manchester and Birmingham re-invent themselves as slick centres of consumerism.

While UK manufacturing employment is falling, the number of people employed in retail jumped by 10 per cent in the East Midlands, and about 15 per cent in Wales and the north-east between 2001 and 2006, according to figures from the Oxford Economics consultancy.

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That is one reason why any signs that consumers may be feeling the effects of the credit squeeze are met with such dismay.

Retail jobs can prove vulnerable in a downturn, and a survey published last week by the consultants Hymans Robertson found that employees in the sector were more worried about pay cuts this year than workers elsewhere.

Yet, so far, rumours of the consumer's demise appear greatly exaggerated.

Last week's data showed underlying retail sales growth had slowed well below last year's average. But even allowing for seasonal uncertainties over the data, January's rebound hardly suggested a collapse in demand.

With the UK labour market still strong, consumers seem more worried about the outlook for the economy and for house prices than they are over their own finances, judging by recent consumer confidence surveys.

Few economists think this benign situation can last, with tighter credit conditions likely to exacerbate the pressures of rising energy and import prices, modest wage growth and falling confidence in the housing market.

Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, warned last week that consumption growth was likely to be "very weak", as food and energy inflation forced "a genuine reduction in our standard of living".

Other members of the bank's monetary policy committee reiterated the message last week.

Tim Besley argued that even slightly tighter credit conditions could significantly deter households from borrowing and spending, and Andrew Sentance said the slowdown could be most noticeable in areas dependent on UK consumers.

Retailers seem likely to have a tough year - but they will not necessarily be the hardest hit.

Household spending accounts for about two-thirds of UK gross domestic product, but only 40 per cent of that total is spent on the high street.

UK car sales appear to have weakened at the start of the year, and the Bank of England's agents reported last week that spending on consumer services, such as hotels and restaurants, softened in January even though spending on goods had stabilised.

Perhaps the new year sales in the UK were simply too tempting for Britons to resist, even when they were economising in other areas.

"The verdict is clear: UK consumers may be down but we are not out," said Geoffrey Dicks, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

"If we have the cash and the price is right, we will spend."

- (Financial Times service)